Potential of Baseline Computed Tomography to Predict Long-Term Survival of Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer Treated With Preoperative Chemotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study

In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of baseline computed tomography (CT) signs and postoperative TN stages on survival of patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with preoperative chemotherapy. Consecutive patients (n = 130) with preoperative chemotherapy and radical esophagectomy from January 2006 to December 2011 were enrolled in this study retrospectively. Pathological T and N stages were confirmed by surgery. Baseline CT signs of tumor length, tumor thickness, outer membrane features, total number of lymph node (tLN), short diameter of the largest lymph node (SDL), and clinical T and N stages were measured. Eight-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were estimated using Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to determine associations between baseline CT signs and survival outcomes. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that tLN number, largest LN short axis diameter, pT, and pN stages all correlated with OS significantly. And the total tLN number, SDL and pN stages significantly correlated with DFS. In Cox analyses, total tLN number (>6) and pN stage were significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.55 [95% CI, 1.13–2.11, P = 0.006] and HR: 1.49 [95% CI, 1.17–1.90, P = 0.001], respectively). Cox regression analysis showed that OS index was predictive of 1- to 3-year survival. Total number of lymph node in baseline CT provides equal efficiency compared to pN stages in the prediction of 8-year long-term survival outcomes for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients with preoperative chemotherapy.