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Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico
Dengue vaccines will soon provide a new tool for reducing dengue disease, but the effectiveness of widespread vaccination campaigns has not yet been determined. We developed an agent-based dengue model representing movement of and transmission dynamics among people and mosquitoes in Yucatán, Mexico,...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4882069/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27227883 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004661 |
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author | Hladish, Thomas J. Pearson, Carl A. B. Chao, Dennis L. Rojas, Diana Patricia Recchia, Gabriel L. Gómez-Dantés, Héctor Halloran, M. Elizabeth Pulliam, Juliet R. C. Longini, Ira M. |
author_facet | Hladish, Thomas J. Pearson, Carl A. B. Chao, Dennis L. Rojas, Diana Patricia Recchia, Gabriel L. Gómez-Dantés, Héctor Halloran, M. Elizabeth Pulliam, Juliet R. C. Longini, Ira M. |
author_sort | Hladish, Thomas J. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Dengue vaccines will soon provide a new tool for reducing dengue disease, but the effectiveness of widespread vaccination campaigns has not yet been determined. We developed an agent-based dengue model representing movement of and transmission dynamics among people and mosquitoes in Yucatán, Mexico, and simulated various vaccine scenarios to evaluate effectiveness under those conditions. This model includes detailed spatial representation of the Yucatán population, including the location and movement of 1.8 million people between 375,000 households and 100,000 workplaces and schools. Where possible, we designed the model to use data sources with international coverage, to simplify re-parameterization for other regions. The simulation and analysis integrate 35 years of mild and severe case data (including dengue serotype when available), results of a seroprevalence survey, satellite imagery, and climatological, census, and economic data. To fit model parameters that are not directly informed by available data, such as disease reporting rates and dengue transmission parameters, we developed a parameter estimation toolkit called AbcSmc, which we have made publicly available. After fitting the simulation model to dengue case data, we forecasted transmission and assessed the relative effectiveness of several vaccination strategies over a 20 year period. Vaccine efficacy is based on phase III trial results for the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, Dengvaxia. We consider routine vaccination of 2, 9, or 16 year-olds, with and without a one-time catch-up campaign to age 30. Because the durability of Dengvaxia is not yet established, we consider hypothetical vaccines that confer either durable or waning immunity, and we evaluate the use of booster doses to counter waning. We find that plausible vaccination scenarios with a durable vaccine reduce annual dengue incidence by as much as 80% within five years. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes after administration, we find that there can be years with larger epidemics than would occur without any vaccination, and that vaccine booster doses are necessary to prevent this outcome. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4882069 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-48820692016-06-10 Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico Hladish, Thomas J. Pearson, Carl A. B. Chao, Dennis L. Rojas, Diana Patricia Recchia, Gabriel L. Gómez-Dantés, Héctor Halloran, M. Elizabeth Pulliam, Juliet R. C. Longini, Ira M. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Dengue vaccines will soon provide a new tool for reducing dengue disease, but the effectiveness of widespread vaccination campaigns has not yet been determined. We developed an agent-based dengue model representing movement of and transmission dynamics among people and mosquitoes in Yucatán, Mexico, and simulated various vaccine scenarios to evaluate effectiveness under those conditions. This model includes detailed spatial representation of the Yucatán population, including the location and movement of 1.8 million people between 375,000 households and 100,000 workplaces and schools. Where possible, we designed the model to use data sources with international coverage, to simplify re-parameterization for other regions. The simulation and analysis integrate 35 years of mild and severe case data (including dengue serotype when available), results of a seroprevalence survey, satellite imagery, and climatological, census, and economic data. To fit model parameters that are not directly informed by available data, such as disease reporting rates and dengue transmission parameters, we developed a parameter estimation toolkit called AbcSmc, which we have made publicly available. After fitting the simulation model to dengue case data, we forecasted transmission and assessed the relative effectiveness of several vaccination strategies over a 20 year period. Vaccine efficacy is based on phase III trial results for the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, Dengvaxia. We consider routine vaccination of 2, 9, or 16 year-olds, with and without a one-time catch-up campaign to age 30. Because the durability of Dengvaxia is not yet established, we consider hypothetical vaccines that confer either durable or waning immunity, and we evaluate the use of booster doses to counter waning. We find that plausible vaccination scenarios with a durable vaccine reduce annual dengue incidence by as much as 80% within five years. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes after administration, we find that there can be years with larger epidemics than would occur without any vaccination, and that vaccine booster doses are necessary to prevent this outcome. Public Library of Science 2016-05-26 /pmc/articles/PMC4882069/ /pubmed/27227883 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004661 Text en © 2016 Hladish et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Hladish, Thomas J. Pearson, Carl A. B. Chao, Dennis L. Rojas, Diana Patricia Recchia, Gabriel L. Gómez-Dantés, Héctor Halloran, M. Elizabeth Pulliam, Juliet R. C. Longini, Ira M. Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico |
title | Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico |
title_full | Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico |
title_fullStr | Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico |
title_full_unstemmed | Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico |
title_short | Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico |
title_sort | projected impact of dengue vaccination in yucatán, mexico |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4882069/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27227883 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004661 |
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