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Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variab...

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Autores principales: Meehl, Gerald A., Hu, Aixue, Teng, Haiyan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4895720/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27251760
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11718
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author Meehl, Gerald A.
Hu, Aixue
Teng, Haiyan
author_facet Meehl, Gerald A.
Hu, Aixue
Teng, Haiyan
author_sort Meehl, Gerald A.
collection PubMed
description The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Niño3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015–2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013–2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.
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spelling pubmed-48957202016-08-18 Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Meehl, Gerald A. Hu, Aixue Teng, Haiyan Nat Commun Article The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Niño3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015–2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013–2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase. Nature Publishing Group 2016-06-02 /pmc/articles/PMC4895720/ /pubmed/27251760 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11718 Text en Copyright © 2016, Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
spellingShingle Article
Meehl, Gerald A.
Hu, Aixue
Teng, Haiyan
Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
title Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
title_full Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
title_fullStr Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
title_full_unstemmed Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
title_short Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
title_sort initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the interdecadal pacific oscillation
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4895720/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27251760
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11718
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