Trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccination effectiveness in Australia and South Africa: results from a modelling study

BACKGROUND: A modelling study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of trivalent (TIV) and quadrivalent (QIV) vaccination in South Africa and Australia. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the potential benefits of alternative vaccination strategies which may depend on community‐specific demographic and health characteristics. METHODS: Two influenza A and two influenza B strains were simulated using individual‐based simulation models representing specific communities in South Africa and Australia over 11 years. Scenarios using TIV or QIV, with alternative prioritisation strategies and vaccine coverage levels, were evaluated using a country‐specific health outcomes process. RESULTS: In South Africa, approximately 18% fewer deaths and hospitalisations would be expected to result from the use of QIV compared to TIV over the 11 modelled years (P = 0·031). In Australia, only 2% (P = 0·30) fewer deaths and hospitalisations would result. Vaccinating 2%, 5%, 15% or 20% of the population with TIV using a strategy of prioritising vulnerable age groups, including HIV‐positive individuals, resulted in reductions in hospitalisations and mortality of at least 7%, 18%, 57% and 66%, respectively, in both communities. CONCLUSIONS: The degree to which QIV can reduce health burden compared to TIV is strongly dependent on the number of years in which the influenza B lineage in the TIV matches the circulating B lineages. Assuming a moderate level of B cross‐strain protection, TIV may be as effective as QIV. The choice of vaccination prioritisation has a greater impact than the QIV/TIV choice, with strategies targeting those most responsible for transmission being most effective.