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Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis
The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV repo...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4911567/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27312324 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep28070 |
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author | Gao, Daozhou Lou, Yijun He, Daihai Porco, Travis C. Kuang, Yang Chowell, Gerardo Ruan, Shigui |
author_facet | Gao, Daozhou Lou, Yijun He, Daihai Porco, Travis C. Kuang, Yang Chowell, Gerardo Ruan, Shigui |
author_sort | Gao, Daozhou |
collection | PubMed |
description | The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and calibrate the model to ZIKV epidemic data from Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Parameter estimates yielded a basic reproduction number [Image: see text](0) = 2.055 (95% CI: 0.523–6.300), in which the percentage contribution of sexual transmission is 3.044% (95% CI: 0.123–45.73). Our sensitivity analyses indicate that [Image: see text](0) is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. Prevention and control efforts against ZIKV should target both the mosquito-borne and sexual transmission routes. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4911567 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-49115672016-06-17 Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis Gao, Daozhou Lou, Yijun He, Daihai Porco, Travis C. Kuang, Yang Chowell, Gerardo Ruan, Shigui Sci Rep Article The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and calibrate the model to ZIKV epidemic data from Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Parameter estimates yielded a basic reproduction number [Image: see text](0) = 2.055 (95% CI: 0.523–6.300), in which the percentage contribution of sexual transmission is 3.044% (95% CI: 0.123–45.73). Our sensitivity analyses indicate that [Image: see text](0) is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. Prevention and control efforts against ZIKV should target both the mosquito-borne and sexual transmission routes. Nature Publishing Group 2016-06-17 /pmc/articles/PMC4911567/ /pubmed/27312324 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep28070 Text en Copyright © 2016, Macmillan Publishers Limited http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Article Gao, Daozhou Lou, Yijun He, Daihai Porco, Travis C. Kuang, Yang Chowell, Gerardo Ruan, Shigui Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis |
title | Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis |
title_full | Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis |
title_fullStr | Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis |
title_short | Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis |
title_sort | prevention and control of zika as a mosquito-borne and sexually transmitted disease: a mathematical modeling analysis |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4911567/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27312324 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep28070 |
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