Predictive Factors in the Incidence of Cirrhosis in Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infections

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is among the leading causes of liver cirrhosis worldwide. Predictors of cirrhosis in Iranian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients are yet to be clearly identified. OBJECTIVES: Evaluating the predictive factors of liver cirrhosis in CHB. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted during 1995 - 2014 on all CHB patients who were referred to Tehran hepatitis center, Tehran, Iran. The patients were assessed during periodic visits through medical history and laboratory data. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine predictors of cirrhosis. RESULTS: Two hundred thirty-seven CHB patients were followed for an average duration of 10.6 years, and 41 of these patients developed cirrhosis. The incidence rate of cirrhosis was 2.82/100 person-years. Univariate analyses determined 9 out of 17 factors as significant predictors of outcome in CHB patients. Age of ≥ 45 years, positive hepatitis D virus (HDV), negative HBeAg, platelet count of < 150 (× 10(9))/L, and HBV DNA level of ≥ 2,000 IU/mL were identified as significant independent predictors of liver cirrhosis in multiple logistic analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Five predictive factors that are simple and easy to measure may be used as parameters for the prediction of liver cirrhosis in CHB patients.