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Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production
Knowledge of the relationships between environmental forcing and demographic parameters is important for predicting responses from climatic changes and to manage populations effectively. We explore the relationships between the proportion of sea cows (Dugong dugon) classified as calves and four clim...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4927176/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27355367 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155675 |
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author | Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B. Delean, Steven Grayson, Jillian Lavender, Sally Logan, Murray Marsh, Helene |
author_facet | Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B. Delean, Steven Grayson, Jillian Lavender, Sally Logan, Murray Marsh, Helene |
author_sort | Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Knowledge of the relationships between environmental forcing and demographic parameters is important for predicting responses from climatic changes and to manage populations effectively. We explore the relationships between the proportion of sea cows (Dugong dugon) classified as calves and four climatic drivers (rainfall anomaly, Southern Oscillation El Niño Index [SOI], NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature index, and number of tropical cyclones) at a range of spatially distinct locations in Queensland, Australia, a region with relatively high dugong density. Dugong and calf data were obtained from standardized aerial surveys conducted along the study region. A range of lagged versions of each of the focal climatic drivers (1 to 4 years) were included in a global model containing the proportion of calves in each population crossed with each of the lagged versions of the climatic drivers to explore relationships. The relative influence of each predictor was estimated via Gibbs variable selection. The relationships between the proportion of dependent calves and the climatic drivers varied spatially and temporally, with climatic drivers influencing calf counts at sub-regional scales. Thus we recommend that the assessment of and management response to indirect climatic threats on dugongs should also occur at sub-regional scales. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4927176 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-49271762016-07-18 Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B. Delean, Steven Grayson, Jillian Lavender, Sally Logan, Murray Marsh, Helene PLoS One Research Article Knowledge of the relationships between environmental forcing and demographic parameters is important for predicting responses from climatic changes and to manage populations effectively. We explore the relationships between the proportion of sea cows (Dugong dugon) classified as calves and four climatic drivers (rainfall anomaly, Southern Oscillation El Niño Index [SOI], NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature index, and number of tropical cyclones) at a range of spatially distinct locations in Queensland, Australia, a region with relatively high dugong density. Dugong and calf data were obtained from standardized aerial surveys conducted along the study region. A range of lagged versions of each of the focal climatic drivers (1 to 4 years) were included in a global model containing the proportion of calves in each population crossed with each of the lagged versions of the climatic drivers to explore relationships. The relative influence of each predictor was estimated via Gibbs variable selection. The relationships between the proportion of dependent calves and the climatic drivers varied spatially and temporally, with climatic drivers influencing calf counts at sub-regional scales. Thus we recommend that the assessment of and management response to indirect climatic threats on dugongs should also occur at sub-regional scales. Public Library of Science 2016-06-29 /pmc/articles/PMC4927176/ /pubmed/27355367 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155675 Text en © 2016 Fuentes et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B. Delean, Steven Grayson, Jillian Lavender, Sally Logan, Murray Marsh, Helene Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production |
title | Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production |
title_full | Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production |
title_fullStr | Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production |
title_full_unstemmed | Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production |
title_short | Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production |
title_sort | spatial and temporal variation in the effects of climatic variables on dugong calf production |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4927176/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27355367 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155675 |
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