Independent Prognostic Value of Single and Multiple Non-Specific 12-Lead Electrocardiographic Findings for Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Prospective Cohort Study

AIMS: The long-term prognostic effect of non-specific 12-lead electrocardiogram findings is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the cumulative prognostic impact of axial, structural, and repolarization categorical abnormalities on cardiovascular death, independent from traditional risk scoring systems such as the Framingham risk score and the NIPPON DATA80 risk chart. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 16,816 healthy men and women from two prospective, longitudinal cohort studies were evaluated. 3,794 (22.6%) individuals died during a median follow-up of 15 years (range, 2.0–24 years). Hazard ratios for cardiovascular death, all-cause death, coronary death and stroke death were calculated for the cumulative and independent axial, structural, and repolarization categorical abnormalities adjusted for the Framingham risk score and the NIPPON DATA80 risk chart. Individuals with two or more abnormal categories had a higher risk of cardiovascular death after adjustment for Framingham risk score (men: HR 4.27, 95%CI 3.35–5.45; women: HR 4.83, 95%CI 3.76–6.22) and NIPPON DATA80 risk chart (men: HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.87–3.07; women: HR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58–2.64). CONCLUSION: Cumulative findings of axial, structural, and repolarization abnormalities are significant predictors of long-term cardiovascular death in asymptomatic, healthy individuals independent of traditional risk stratification systems.