Modelling the influence of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis

BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be one of the most devastating diseases in the world, killing more humans than any other infectious disease. Malaria parasites are entirely dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission. For this reason, vector population dynamics is a crucial determinant of malaria risk. Consequently, it is important to understand the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes in the study of malaria transmission. Temperature and precipitation also play a significant role in both aquatic and adult stages of the Anopheles. METHODS: In this study, a climate-based, ordinary-differential-equation model is developed to analyse how temperature and the availability of water affect mosquito population size. In the model, the influence of ambient temperature on the development and the mortality rate of Anopheles arabiensis is considered over a region in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. In particular, the model is used to examine the impact of climatic factors on the gonotrophic cycle and the dynamics of mosquito population over the study region. RESULTS: The results fairly accurately quantify the seasonality of the population of An. arabiensis over the region and also demonstrate the influence of climatic factors on the vector population dynamics. The model simulates the population dynamics of both immature and adult An. arabiensis. The simulated larval density produces a curve which is similar to observed data obtained from another study. CONCLUSION: The model is efficiently developed to predict An. arabiensis population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of various control strategies. In addition, the model framework is built to accommodate human population dynamics with the ability to predict malaria incidence in future. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1411-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.