Child welfare clients have higher risks for teenage childbirths: which are the major confounders?

Background: Aiming to support effective social intervention strategies targeting high-risk groups for teenage motherhood, this study examined to what extent the elevated crude risks of teenage childbirth among child welfare groups were attributable to the uneven distribution of adverse individual and family background factors. Methods: Comprehensive longitudinal register data for more than 700 000 Swedish females born 1973–1989 (including around 29 000 child welfare clients) were analysed by means of binary logistic regression. The Karlson/Holm/Breen-method was used to decompose each confounding factor’s relative contribution to the difference between crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs). Results: Elevated crude risks for teenage childbirth are to a large extent attributable to selection on observables. Girls’ school failure was the most potent confounder, accounting for 28–35% of the difference between crude and adjusted ORs. Conclusion: As in majority populations, girls’ school failure was a strong risk factor for teenage childbirth among former child welfare children. At least among pre-adolescents, promoting school performance among children in the child welfare system seems to be a viable intervention path.