Epidemiological impact of achieving UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets for HIV care in India: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE: Recent UNAIDS ‘90-90-90’ targets propose that to end the HIV epidemic by 2030, 90% of persons living with HIV (PLWH) worldwide should know their diagnosis, 90% of diagnosed PLWH should be on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and 90% of PLWH on ART should be virally suppressed by 2020. We sought to quantify the epidemiological impact of achieving these targets in India. METHODS: We constructed a dynamic-transmission model of the Indian HIV epidemic to project HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths that would occur in India over 15 years. We considered several scenarios: continuation of current care engagement (with early ART initiation), achieving 90-90-90 targets on time and delaying achievement by 5 or 10 years. RESULTS: In the base case, assuming continuation of current care engagement, we project 794 000 (95% uncertainty range (UR) 571 000–1 104 000) HIV infections and 689 000 (95% UR 468 000–976 000) AIDS-related deaths in India over 15 years. In this scenario, nearly half of PLWH diagnosed would fail to achieve viral suppression by 2030. With achievement of 90-90-90 targets, India could avert 392 000 (95% UR 248 000–559 000) transmissions (48% reduction) and 414 000 (95% UR 260 000–598 000) AIDS-related deaths (59% reduction) compared to the base-case scenario. Furthermore, fewer than 20 000 (95% UR 12 000–30 000) HIV infections would occur in 2030. Delaying achievement of targets resulted in a similar reduction in HIV incidence by 2030 but at the cost of excess overall infections and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: India can halve the epidemiological burden of HIV over 15 years with achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. Reaching the targets on time will require comprehensive healthcare strengthening, especially in early diagnosis and treatment, expanded access to second-line and third-line ART and long-term retention in care.