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Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard
Large‐scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4950152/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27478717 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024380 |
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author | Möller, Marco Obleitner, Friedrich Reijmer, Carleen H. Pohjola, Veijo A. Głowacki, Piotr Kohler, Jack |
author_facet | Möller, Marco Obleitner, Friedrich Reijmer, Carleen H. Pohjola, Veijo A. Głowacki, Piotr Kohler, Jack |
author_sort | Möller, Marco |
collection | PubMed |
description | Large‐scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available over larger regions or for longer time periods. This study evaluates the extent to which it is possible to derive reliable region‐wide glacier mass balance estimates, using coarse resolution (10 km) RCM output for model forcing. Our data cover the entire Svalbard archipelago over one decade. To calculate mass balance, we use an index‐based model. Model parameters are not calibrated, but the RCM air temperature and precipitation fields are adjusted using in situ mass balance measurements as reference. We compare two different calibration methods: root mean square error minimization and regression optimization. The obtained air temperature shifts (+1.43°C versus +2.22°C) and precipitation scaling factors (1.23 versus 1.86) differ considerably between the two methods, which we attribute to inhomogeneities in the spatiotemporal distribution of the reference data. Our modeling suggests a mean annual climatic mass balance of −0.05 ± 0.40 m w.e. a(−1) for Svalbard over 2000–2011 and a mean equilibrium line altitude of 452 ± 200 m above sea level. We find that the limited spatial resolution of the RCM forcing with respect to real surface topography and the usage of spatially homogeneous RCM output adjustments and mass balance model parameters are responsible for much of the modeling uncertainty. Sensitivity of the results to model parameter uncertainty is comparably small and of minor importance. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4950152 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-49501522016-07-28 Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard Möller, Marco Obleitner, Friedrich Reijmer, Carleen H. Pohjola, Veijo A. Głowacki, Piotr Kohler, Jack J Geophys Res Atmos Research Articles Large‐scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available over larger regions or for longer time periods. This study evaluates the extent to which it is possible to derive reliable region‐wide glacier mass balance estimates, using coarse resolution (10 km) RCM output for model forcing. Our data cover the entire Svalbard archipelago over one decade. To calculate mass balance, we use an index‐based model. Model parameters are not calibrated, but the RCM air temperature and precipitation fields are adjusted using in situ mass balance measurements as reference. We compare two different calibration methods: root mean square error minimization and regression optimization. The obtained air temperature shifts (+1.43°C versus +2.22°C) and precipitation scaling factors (1.23 versus 1.86) differ considerably between the two methods, which we attribute to inhomogeneities in the spatiotemporal distribution of the reference data. Our modeling suggests a mean annual climatic mass balance of −0.05 ± 0.40 m w.e. a(−1) for Svalbard over 2000–2011 and a mean equilibrium line altitude of 452 ± 200 m above sea level. We find that the limited spatial resolution of the RCM forcing with respect to real surface topography and the usage of spatially homogeneous RCM output adjustments and mass balance model parameters are responsible for much of the modeling uncertainty. Sensitivity of the results to model parameter uncertainty is comparably small and of minor importance. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2016-05-21 2016-05-27 /pmc/articles/PMC4950152/ /pubmed/27478717 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024380 Text en ©2016. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Articles Möller, Marco Obleitner, Friedrich Reijmer, Carleen H. Pohjola, Veijo A. Głowacki, Piotr Kohler, Jack Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard |
title | Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard |
title_full | Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard |
title_fullStr | Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard |
title_full_unstemmed | Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard |
title_short | Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard |
title_sort | adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on svalbard |
topic | Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4950152/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27478717 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024380 |
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