Progression and predictors of mild cognitive impairment in Chinese elderly: A prospective follow-up in the Shanghai Aging Study

INTRODUCTION: The Shanghai Aging Study is a community-based study aiming to investigate the incidence and progression of cognitive decline in Chinese elderly, with the operational procedures and diagnostic criteria similar to cohort studies in developed countries. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated 362 individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) diagnosed at baseline through a clinical and neuropsychological interview. Diagnoses of dementia and MCI were made using standard criteria via consensus diagnosis. RESULTS: The conversion rate to dementia was 6.0 per 100 person-years, while the reversion rate to cognitive normal was 7.8 per 100 person-years. Amnestic MCI multiple domains was the most risky type for dementia (conversion rate: 14.2 per 100 person-years). Older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09), apolipoprotein E (APOE ε4) (HR = 2.15), and low MMSE score (HR = 1.18) were predictors for dementia. DISCUSSION: Approximately 6% of elderly with MCI progress to dementia annually. Prospective studies are needed to further examine risk and protective predictors and to seek proper interventions for cognitive decline.