Risk of gastric cancer in Helicobacter pylori infection in a 15-year follow-up

Objective: We investigated the risk of gastric cancer among men with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection or atrophic gastritis (AG) in a 15-year follow-up. Materials and methods: Study population consists of 12,016 men aged 50–65 years at the beginning of the follow-up in 1994–1996. Serum levels of pepsinogen I (SPGI) and antibodies (IgG) to H. pylori (HpAb) were assayed from serums collected in 1994–1996. Incidence of gastric cancer in the study population was assessed in follow-up from 1994 to 2011 by data from the nationwide cancer registry. Based on SPGI and HpAb values, standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of gastric cancer were calculated in three subgroups, that is, in those with a healthy stomach, those with H. pylori infection but without AG and those with AG. Risk ratios (RR) of gastric cancer were calculated using SIR of subgroups. Results: During 15 years, seven gastric cancers appeared per 79,928 person years among men with healthy stomachs, 50 cancers per 92,533 person years in men with H. pylori infection but without AG, and 8 per 8658 person years in men with AG. Risk ratio (RR) of stomach cancer in men with H. pylori infection was 5.8 (95%CI: 2.7–15.3) compared to men with healthy stomachs, and 9.1 (95%CI: 2.9–30.0) in men with AG. There were no differences in cancer risk between cardia and distal stomach. Conclusions: Risk of gastric cancer is low in men with healthy stomachs. It is significantly increased in those with H. pylori infection and more in those with AG.