Cognitive variability—A marker for incident MCI and AD: An analysis for the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

INTRODUCTION: The potential of intra-individual cognitive variability (IICV) to predict incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or Alzheimer's disease (AD) was examined and compared to well-established neuroimaging and genetic predictors. METHODS: IICV was estimated using four neuropsychological measures for n = 1324 Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants who were cognitively healthy or diagnosed with MCI at baseline. IICV was used to predict time to incident MCI or AD, and compared to hippocampal volume loss and APOE ε4 status via survival analysis. RESULTS: In survival analyses, controlling for age, education, baseline diagonosis, and APOE ε4 status, likelihood ratio tests indicate that IICV is associated with time to cognitive status change in the full sample (P < .0001), and when the sample was restricted to individuals with MCI at baseline (P < .0001). DISCUSSION: These findings suggest IICV may be a low-cost, noninvasive alternative to traditional AD biomarkers.