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Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence

The intensification of precipitation extremes in a warming world has been reported on a global scale and is traditionally explained with the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation. The relationship is observed to be valid in mid-latitudes; however, the debate persists in tropical monsoon regions, with th...

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Autores principales: Vittal, H., Ghosh, Subimal, Karmakar, Subhankar, Pathak, Amey, Murtugudde, Raghu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4971573/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27485661
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep31039
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author Vittal, H.
Ghosh, Subimal
Karmakar, Subhankar
Pathak, Amey
Murtugudde, Raghu
author_facet Vittal, H.
Ghosh, Subimal
Karmakar, Subhankar
Pathak, Amey
Murtugudde, Raghu
author_sort Vittal, H.
collection PubMed
description The intensification of precipitation extremes in a warming world has been reported on a global scale and is traditionally explained with the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation. The relationship is observed to be valid in mid-latitudes; however, the debate persists in tropical monsoon regions, with the extremes of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) being a prime example. Here, we present a comprehensive study on the dependence of ISMR extremes on both the 2 m surface air temperature over India and on the sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean. Remarkably, the ISMR extremes exhibit no significant association with temperature at either spatial scale: neither aggregated over the entire India/Tropical Indian Ocean area nor at the grid levels. We find that the theoretical C-C relation overestimates the positive changes in precipitation extremes, which is also reflected in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations. We emphasize that the changing patterns of extremes over the Indian subcontinent need a scientific re-evaluation, which is possible due to availability of the unique long-term in-situ data. This can aid bias correction of model projections of extremes whose value for climate adaptation can hardly be overemphasized, especially for the developing tropical countries.
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spelling pubmed-49715732016-08-11 Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence Vittal, H. Ghosh, Subimal Karmakar, Subhankar Pathak, Amey Murtugudde, Raghu Sci Rep Article The intensification of precipitation extremes in a warming world has been reported on a global scale and is traditionally explained with the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation. The relationship is observed to be valid in mid-latitudes; however, the debate persists in tropical monsoon regions, with the extremes of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) being a prime example. Here, we present a comprehensive study on the dependence of ISMR extremes on both the 2 m surface air temperature over India and on the sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean. Remarkably, the ISMR extremes exhibit no significant association with temperature at either spatial scale: neither aggregated over the entire India/Tropical Indian Ocean area nor at the grid levels. We find that the theoretical C-C relation overestimates the positive changes in precipitation extremes, which is also reflected in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations. We emphasize that the changing patterns of extremes over the Indian subcontinent need a scientific re-evaluation, which is possible due to availability of the unique long-term in-situ data. This can aid bias correction of model projections of extremes whose value for climate adaptation can hardly be overemphasized, especially for the developing tropical countries. Nature Publishing Group 2016-08-03 /pmc/articles/PMC4971573/ /pubmed/27485661 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep31039 Text en Copyright © 2016, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
spellingShingle Article
Vittal, H.
Ghosh, Subimal
Karmakar, Subhankar
Pathak, Amey
Murtugudde, Raghu
Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence
title Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence
title_full Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence
title_fullStr Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence
title_full_unstemmed Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence
title_short Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence
title_sort lack of dependence of indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes on temperature: an observational evidence
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4971573/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27485661
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep31039
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