Predicting Parkinson disease in the community using a nonmotor risk score

At present, there are no validated methods to identify persons who are at increased risk for Parkinson Disease (PD) from the general population. We investigated the clinical usefulness of a recently proposed non-motor risk score for PD (the PREDICT-PD risk score) in the population-based Rotterdam Study. At baseline (1990), we constructed a weighted risk score based on 10 early nonmotor features and risk factors in 6492 persons free of parkinsonism and dementia. We followed these persons for up to 20 years (median 16.1 years) for the onset of PD until 2011. We studied the association between the PREDICT-PD risk score and incident PD using competing risk regression models with adjustment for age and sex. In addition, we assessed whether the PREDICT-PD risk score improved discrimination (C-statistics) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement) of incident PD beyond age and sex. During follow-up, 110 persons were diagnosed with incident PD. The PREDICT-PD risk score was associated with incident PD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.30; 95 % confidence interval [1.06; 1.59]) and yielded a small, non-significant improvement in overall discrimination (ΔC-statistic = 0.018[−0.005; 0.041]) and risk classification (net reclassification improvement = 0.172[−0.017; 0.360]) of incident PD. In conclusion, the PREDICT-PD risk score only slightly improves long-term prediction of PD in the community. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10654-016-0130-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.