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Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet

BACKGROUND: Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-caus...

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Autores principales: Manuel, Douglas G., Perez, Richard, Sanmartin, Claudia, Taljaard, Monica, Hennessy, Deirdre, Wilson, Kumanan, Tanuseputro, Peter, Manson, Heather, Bennett, Carol, Tuna, Meltem, Fisher, Stacey, Rosella, Laura C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4986987/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27529741
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002082
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author Manuel, Douglas G.
Perez, Richard
Sanmartin, Claudia
Taljaard, Monica
Hennessy, Deirdre
Wilson, Kumanan
Tanuseputro, Peter
Manson, Heather
Bennett, Carol
Tuna, Meltem
Fisher, Stacey
Rosella, Laura C.
author_facet Manuel, Douglas G.
Perez, Richard
Sanmartin, Claudia
Taljaard, Monica
Hennessy, Deirdre
Wilson, Kumanan
Tanuseputro, Peter
Manson, Heather
Bennett, Carol
Tuna, Meltem
Fisher, Stacey
Rosella, Laura C.
author_sort Manuel, Douglas G.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. METHODS: A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death—the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)—was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. FINDINGS: The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867–0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868–0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). CONCLUSIONS: Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population.
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spelling pubmed-49869872016-08-29 Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet Manuel, Douglas G. Perez, Richard Sanmartin, Claudia Taljaard, Monica Hennessy, Deirdre Wilson, Kumanan Tanuseputro, Peter Manson, Heather Bennett, Carol Tuna, Meltem Fisher, Stacey Rosella, Laura C. PLoS Med Research Article BACKGROUND: Behaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death. METHODS: A predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death—the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)—was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model. FINDINGS: The MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867–0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868–0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation). CONCLUSIONS: Multivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population. Public Library of Science 2016-08-16 /pmc/articles/PMC4986987/ /pubmed/27529741 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002082 Text en © 2016 Manuel et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Manuel, Douglas G.
Perez, Richard
Sanmartin, Claudia
Taljaard, Monica
Hennessy, Deirdre
Wilson, Kumanan
Tanuseputro, Peter
Manson, Heather
Bennett, Carol
Tuna, Meltem
Fisher, Stacey
Rosella, Laura C.
Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet
title Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet
title_full Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet
title_fullStr Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet
title_full_unstemmed Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet
title_short Measuring Burden of Unhealthy Behaviours Using a Multivariable Predictive Approach: Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Smoking, Alcohol, Physical Inactivity, and Diet
title_sort measuring burden of unhealthy behaviours using a multivariable predictive approach: life expectancy lost in canada attributable to smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and diet
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4986987/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27529741
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002082
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