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Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil
Hansen’s disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on und...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Public Library of Science
2016
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4993072/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27532862 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004925 |
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author | Smith, Rebecca Lee |
author_facet | Smith, Rebecca Lee |
author_sort | Smith, Rebecca Lee |
collection | PubMed |
description | Hansen’s disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44–45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4993072 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-49930722016-09-27 Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil Smith, Rebecca Lee PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Hansen’s disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44–45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control. Public Library of Science 2016-08-17 /pmc/articles/PMC4993072/ /pubmed/27532862 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004925 Text en © 2016 Rebecca Lee Smith http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Smith, Rebecca Lee Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil |
title | Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil |
title_full | Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil |
title_fullStr | Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed | Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil |
title_short | Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil |
title_sort | proposing a compartmental model for leprosy and parameterizing using regional incidence in brazil |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4993072/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27532862 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004925 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT smithrebeccalee proposingacompartmentalmodelforleprosyandparameterizingusingregionalincidenceinbrazil |