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Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control

The mechanisms behind the sub-exponential growth dynamics of the West Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic could be related to improved control of the epidemic and the result of reduced disease transmission in spatially constrained contact structures. An individual-based, stochastic network model is...

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Autores principales: Kiskowski, Maria, Chowell, Gerardo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Taylor & Francis 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4994833/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26399855
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21505594.2015.1076613
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author Kiskowski, Maria
Chowell, Gerardo
author_facet Kiskowski, Maria
Chowell, Gerardo
author_sort Kiskowski, Maria
collection PubMed
description The mechanisms behind the sub-exponential growth dynamics of the West Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic could be related to improved control of the epidemic and the result of reduced disease transmission in spatially constrained contact structures. An individual-based, stochastic network model is used to model immediate and delayed epidemic control in the context of social contact networks and investigate the extent to which the relative role of these factors may be determined during an outbreak. We find that in general, epidemics quickly establish a dynamic equilibrium of infections in the form of a wave of fixed size and speed traveling through the contact network. Both greater epidemic control and limited community mixing decrease the size of an infectious wave. However, for a fixed wave size, epidemic control (in contrast with limited community mixing) results in lower community saturation and a wave that moves more quickly through the contact network. We also found that the level of epidemic control has a disproportionately greater reductive effect on larger waves, so that a small wave requires nearly as much epidemic control as a larger wave to end an epidemic.
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spelling pubmed-49948332016-09-06 Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control Kiskowski, Maria Chowell, Gerardo Virulence Research Paper The mechanisms behind the sub-exponential growth dynamics of the West Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic could be related to improved control of the epidemic and the result of reduced disease transmission in spatially constrained contact structures. An individual-based, stochastic network model is used to model immediate and delayed epidemic control in the context of social contact networks and investigate the extent to which the relative role of these factors may be determined during an outbreak. We find that in general, epidemics quickly establish a dynamic equilibrium of infections in the form of a wave of fixed size and speed traveling through the contact network. Both greater epidemic control and limited community mixing decrease the size of an infectious wave. However, for a fixed wave size, epidemic control (in contrast with limited community mixing) results in lower community saturation and a wave that moves more quickly through the contact network. We also found that the level of epidemic control has a disproportionately greater reductive effect on larger waves, so that a small wave requires nearly as much epidemic control as a larger wave to end an epidemic. Taylor & Francis 2015-08-20 /pmc/articles/PMC4994833/ /pubmed/26399855 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21505594.2015.1076613 Text en © 2016 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The moral rights of the named author(s) have been asserted.
spellingShingle Research Paper
Kiskowski, Maria
Chowell, Gerardo
Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control
title Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control
title_full Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control
title_fullStr Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control
title_full_unstemmed Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control
title_short Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control
title_sort modeling household and community transmission of ebola virus disease: epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control
topic Research Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4994833/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26399855
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21505594.2015.1076613
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