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Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For e...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Britton, Tom, House, Thomas, Lloyd, Alun L., Mollison, Denis, Riley, Steven, Trapman, Pieter
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4996665/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25843384
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002
Descripción
Sumario:The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?