Radial EUS Examination Can be Helpful in Predicting the Severity of Acute Biliary Pancreatitis

We investigated the utility of noncontrast enhanced endosonography (EUS) in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) during the first 72 to 96 h of admission. In total, 187 patients with acute biliary pancreatitis were included. The patients were classified into 2 groups as having severe and mild AP according to the Modified Glasgow scoring and computerized tomography severity index (SI). The 158 cases with mild and 29 cases with severe AP had a similar age and sex distribution. Although none of the cases with mild AP developed morbidity and death, of the cases with severe AP, 16 developed serious morbidities and 5 died. On EUS examination, we looked for parenchymal findings, peripancreatic inflammatory signs, free or loculated fluid collections, and abnormalities of the common bile duct and the pancreatic channel. Statistical analysis indicated a significant relationship between the severity of AP with diffuse parenchymal edema, periparenchymal plastering, and/or diffuse retroperitoneal free fluid accumulation, and peri-pancreatic edema. We also defined an EUSSI and found that the EUSSI had sensitivity of 89.7%, specificity of 84.2%, positive predictivity value (PPV) of 88.9%, negative predictivity value (NPV) of 91.2%, and an accuracy of 87.9% in the differentiation of mild and severe AP. We found that the EUSSI had an accuracy of 72.4%, sensitivity of 75.4%, specificity of 65.1%, PPV of 69.3%, and NPV of 73.1% for determining mortality. Our data suggest that EUS allowed us to accurately predict the severity and mortality in nearly 90% of cases with AP.