Prognostic Significance of 2-Deoxy-2-[18F]-Fluoro-D-Glucose PET/CT in Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Before Surgery: A Nonparametric Approach

To investigate the prognostic value of tumor metabolism measurements on serial 2-deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro-D-glucose positron emission tomography and computed tomography scans in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Forty-five patients (63 ± 7 years, 6 female) treated with concomitant chemoradiotherapy before surgery were followed up for 24 ± 18 months (range 4–71). Positron emission tomography and computed tomography scans were obtained within 1 week before the start (PET1) and 1 month after the completion of the treatment (PET2). Total body tumor metabolic activity was measured as the sum of the parameters: SUVmax, SUV corrected for lean body mass, and total lesion glycolysis (TLG(40/50/70%)). Then, delta values for the parameters between PET1 and PET2 were calculated and expressed as percentage of PET1 results. At the time of the analysis, 27 patients were dead and 18 were alive. There was no difference between the 2 groups in terms of age, sex, site of the disease, histology, and the presence/absence of linfonodal metastases (P = NS). Survival random forest analysis (20,000 trees) resulted in an estimate of error rate of 36%. The nonparametric approach identified ΔTLG(40) as the most predictive factor of survival (relative importance 100%). Moreover, T (17%), N (5%), and M (5%) stage of the disease, cancer histology (11%), TLG(70) (5%) at the end of chemioradioterapy, and ΔTLG(50–70) (17%–5%) were positively associated with patient outcome. The nonparametric analysis confirmed the prognostic importance of some clinical parameters, such as TNM stage and cancer histology. Moreover, ΔTLG resulted to be the most important factor in predicting outcome and should be considered in risk stratification of patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.