Score Predicting Acute Chest Syndrome During Vaso-occlusive Crises in Adult Sickle-cell Disease Patients

BACKGROUND: Vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC), hallmark of sickle-cell disease (SCD), is the first cause of patients' Emergency-Room admissions and hospitalizations. Acute chest syndrome (ACS), a life-threatening complication, can occur during VOC, be fatal and prolong hospitalization. No predictive factor identifies VOC patients who will develop secondary ACS. METHODS: This prospective, monocenter, observational study on SS/S-β(0)thalassemia SCD adults aimed to identify parameters predicting ACS at Emergency-Department arrival. The primary endpoint was ACS onset within 15 days of admission. Secondary endpoints were hospitalization duration, morphine consumption, pain evaluation, blood transfusion(s) (BT(s)), requiring intensive care and mortality. FINDINGS: Among 250 VOCs included, 247 were analyzed. Forty-four (17.8%) ACSs occurred within 15 (median [IQR] 3 [2, 3]) days post-admission based on auscultation abnormalities; missing chest radiographs excluded three patients. Comparing ACS to VOC, respectively, median hospital stay was longer 9 [7–11] vs 4 [3–7] days (p < 0.0001), 7/41 (17%) vs 1/203 (0.5%) required intensive care (p < 0.0001), and 20/41 (48.7%) vs 6/203 (3%) required BTs (p < 0.0001). No patient died. The multivariate model retained reticulocyte and leukocyte counts, and spine and/or pelvis pain as being independently associated with ACS; the resulting ACS-predictive score's area under the ROC was 0.840 [95% CI 0.780–0.900], 98.8% negative-predictive value and 39.5% positive-predictive value for the real ACS incidence. INTERPRETATION: The ACS-predictive score is simple, easily applied and could change VOC management and therapeutic perspectives. Assessed ACS risk could lead to earlier discharges or close monitoring and rapid medical intensification to prevent ACS.