Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030

We aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare costs and number of deaths among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England and Scotland 2011–2030. We adapted the Dutch COPD Model by using English and Scottish demographic, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, smoking prevalence and mortality data to make projections. In England, the prevalence of COPD was estimated to be 1.79% (95% uncertainty interval 1.77–1.81) in 2011, increasing to 2.19% (1.85–2.33) by 2030. In Scotland, prevalence was 2.03% (1.96–2.10) in 2011 increasing to 2.20% (1.98–2.40) in 2030. These increases were driven by more women developing COPD. Annual direct healthcare costs of COPD in England were estimated to increase from £1.50 billon (1.18–2.50) in 2011 to £2.32 (1.85–3.08) billion in 2030. In Scotland, costs increased from £159 million (128–268) in 2011 to £207 (165–274) million in 2030. The deaths in England were estimated to increase from 99,200 (92,500–128,500) in 2011, to 129,400 (126,400–133,400) by 2030. In Scotland, in 2011 there were 9,700 (9,000–12,300) deaths and 13,900 (13,400–14,500) deaths in 2030. The number of people with COPD will increase substantially over the coming years in England and Scotland, particularly in females. Services need to adapt to this increasing demand.