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Spatial mapping and prediction of Plasmodium falciparum infection risk among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire
BACKGROUND: In Côte d’Ivoire, malaria remains a major public health issue, and thus a priority to be tackled. The aim of this study was to identify spatially explicit indicators of Plasmodium falciparum infection among school-aged children and to undertake a model-based spatial prediction of P. falc...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5015250/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27604807 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-016-1775-z |
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author | Houngbedji, Clarisse A. Chammartin, Frédérique Yapi, Richard B. Hürlimann, Eveline N’Dri, Prisca B. Silué, Kigbafori D. Soro, Gotianwa Koudou, Benjamin G. Assi, Serge-Brice N’Goran, Eliézer K. Fantodji, Agathe Utzinger, Jürg Vounatsou, Penelope Raso, Giovanna |
author_facet | Houngbedji, Clarisse A. Chammartin, Frédérique Yapi, Richard B. Hürlimann, Eveline N’Dri, Prisca B. Silué, Kigbafori D. Soro, Gotianwa Koudou, Benjamin G. Assi, Serge-Brice N’Goran, Eliézer K. Fantodji, Agathe Utzinger, Jürg Vounatsou, Penelope Raso, Giovanna |
author_sort | Houngbedji, Clarisse A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: In Côte d’Ivoire, malaria remains a major public health issue, and thus a priority to be tackled. The aim of this study was to identify spatially explicit indicators of Plasmodium falciparum infection among school-aged children and to undertake a model-based spatial prediction of P. falciparum infection risk using environmental predictors. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including parasitological examinations and interviews with more than 5,000 children from 93 schools across Côte d’Ivoire. A finger-prick blood sample was obtained from each child to determine Plasmodium species-specific infection and parasitaemia using Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood films. Household socioeconomic status was assessed through asset ownership and household characteristics. Children were interviewed for preventive measures against malaria. Environmental data were gathered from satellite images and digitized maps. A Bayesian geostatistical stochastic search variable selection procedure was employed to identify factors related to P. falciparum infection risk. Bayesian geostatistical logistic regression models were used to map the spatial distribution of P. falciparum infection and to predict the infection prevalence at non-sampled locations via Bayesian kriging. RESULTS: Complete data sets were available from 5,322 children aged 5–16 years across Côte d’Ivoire. P. falciparum was the predominant species (94.5 %). The Bayesian geostatistical variable selection procedure identified land cover and socioeconomic status as important predictors for infection risk with P. falciparum. Model-based prediction identified high P. falciparum infection risk in the north, central-east, south-east, west and south-west of Côte d’Ivoire. Low-risk areas were found in the south-eastern area close to Abidjan and the south-central and west-central part of the country. CONCLUSIONS: The P. falciparum infection risk and related uncertainty estimates for school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire represent the most up-to-date malaria risk maps. These tools can be used for spatial targeting of malaria control interventions. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1775-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5015250 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-50152502016-09-09 Spatial mapping and prediction of Plasmodium falciparum infection risk among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire Houngbedji, Clarisse A. Chammartin, Frédérique Yapi, Richard B. Hürlimann, Eveline N’Dri, Prisca B. Silué, Kigbafori D. Soro, Gotianwa Koudou, Benjamin G. Assi, Serge-Brice N’Goran, Eliézer K. Fantodji, Agathe Utzinger, Jürg Vounatsou, Penelope Raso, Giovanna Parasit Vectors Research BACKGROUND: In Côte d’Ivoire, malaria remains a major public health issue, and thus a priority to be tackled. The aim of this study was to identify spatially explicit indicators of Plasmodium falciparum infection among school-aged children and to undertake a model-based spatial prediction of P. falciparum infection risk using environmental predictors. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including parasitological examinations and interviews with more than 5,000 children from 93 schools across Côte d’Ivoire. A finger-prick blood sample was obtained from each child to determine Plasmodium species-specific infection and parasitaemia using Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood films. Household socioeconomic status was assessed through asset ownership and household characteristics. Children were interviewed for preventive measures against malaria. Environmental data were gathered from satellite images and digitized maps. A Bayesian geostatistical stochastic search variable selection procedure was employed to identify factors related to P. falciparum infection risk. Bayesian geostatistical logistic regression models were used to map the spatial distribution of P. falciparum infection and to predict the infection prevalence at non-sampled locations via Bayesian kriging. RESULTS: Complete data sets were available from 5,322 children aged 5–16 years across Côte d’Ivoire. P. falciparum was the predominant species (94.5 %). The Bayesian geostatistical variable selection procedure identified land cover and socioeconomic status as important predictors for infection risk with P. falciparum. Model-based prediction identified high P. falciparum infection risk in the north, central-east, south-east, west and south-west of Côte d’Ivoire. Low-risk areas were found in the south-eastern area close to Abidjan and the south-central and west-central part of the country. CONCLUSIONS: The P. falciparum infection risk and related uncertainty estimates for school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire represent the most up-to-date malaria risk maps. These tools can be used for spatial targeting of malaria control interventions. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1775-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2016-09-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5015250/ /pubmed/27604807 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-016-1775-z Text en © The Author(s). 2016 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
spellingShingle | Research Houngbedji, Clarisse A. Chammartin, Frédérique Yapi, Richard B. Hürlimann, Eveline N’Dri, Prisca B. Silué, Kigbafori D. Soro, Gotianwa Koudou, Benjamin G. Assi, Serge-Brice N’Goran, Eliézer K. Fantodji, Agathe Utzinger, Jürg Vounatsou, Penelope Raso, Giovanna Spatial mapping and prediction of Plasmodium falciparum infection risk among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire |
title | Spatial mapping and prediction of Plasmodium falciparum infection risk among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire |
title_full | Spatial mapping and prediction of Plasmodium falciparum infection risk among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire |
title_fullStr | Spatial mapping and prediction of Plasmodium falciparum infection risk among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire |
title_full_unstemmed | Spatial mapping and prediction of Plasmodium falciparum infection risk among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire |
title_short | Spatial mapping and prediction of Plasmodium falciparum infection risk among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire |
title_sort | spatial mapping and prediction of plasmodium falciparum infection risk among school-aged children in côte d’ivoire |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5015250/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27604807 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-016-1775-z |
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