Different Combinations of Glucose Tolerance and Blood Pressure Status and Incident Diabetes, Hypertension, and Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND: The impact of different combinations of glucose tolerance and blood pressure status on the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension (HTN), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) still needs to be investigated. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 12 808 Iranian adults aged ≥20 years were included in 3 separate analyses to investigate incidence of T2DM, HTN, and CKD. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (95% CI). During a median follow‐up of >10 years, the overall incidence rate for T2DM, HTN, and CKD was 12.2, 29.8, and 24.8 per 1000 person‐years. For incident T2DM, considering normal glucose tolerance/normal blood pressure as reference, prediabetes (PreDM)/HTN had the highest risk (hazard ratio: 7.22 [5.71–9.12]) while PreDM/normal blood pressure also showed a significant risk (5.58 [4.41–7.05]). Furthermore, risk of PreDM/HTN was higher than PreDM/normal blood pressure (P<0.05). For incident HTN, normal glucose tolerance/prehypertension was a strong predictor (3.28 [2.91–3.69]); however, addition of PreDM or T2DM did not increase the risk. For incident CKD, every category that included HTN and/or T2DM showed significant risk; this risk was marginally significant for the PreDM/HTN group (1.19 [0.98–1.43], P=0.06). In addition, PreDM/ normal blood pressure was a marginally significant risk factor for incident HTN while normal glucose tolerance/prehypertension was a significant predictor of T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: Presence of HTN was associated with increased risk of T2DM among the PreDM population; however, dysglycemia did not increase the risk of HTN among individuals with prehypertension. For incident CKD, intensive management of HTN and T2DM, rather than their predisease states, should be considered.