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The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch
In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theor...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer US
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5016552/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27173796 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0476-8 |
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author | te Grotenhuis, Manfred Pelzer, Ben Luo, Liying Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W. |
author_facet | te Grotenhuis, Manfred Pelzer, Ben Luo, Liying Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W. |
author_sort | te Grotenhuis, Manfred |
collection | PubMed |
description | In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theoretical justification is needed for its fundamental constraint on minimum variance of the estimates. We next demonstrate IE’s high sensitivity to the type of dummy parameterization used to obtain the estimates. Finally, we discuss challenges in the interpretation of APC models. Our comments are not restricted to the article in question but pertain generally to any research that uses the IE. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5016552 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Springer US |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-50165522016-09-19 The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch te Grotenhuis, Manfred Pelzer, Ben Luo, Liying Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W. Demography Article In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theoretical justification is needed for its fundamental constraint on minimum variance of the estimates. We next demonstrate IE’s high sensitivity to the type of dummy parameterization used to obtain the estimates. Finally, we discuss challenges in the interpretation of APC models. Our comments are not restricted to the article in question but pertain generally to any research that uses the IE. Springer US 2016-05-12 2016-08 /pmc/articles/PMC5016552/ /pubmed/27173796 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0476-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2016 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. |
spellingShingle | Article te Grotenhuis, Manfred Pelzer, Ben Luo, Liying Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W. The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch |
title | The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch |
title_full | The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch |
title_fullStr | The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch |
title_full_unstemmed | The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch |
title_short | The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch |
title_sort | intrinsic estimator, alternative estimates, and predictions of mortality trends: a comment on masters, hummer, powers, beck, lin, and finch |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5016552/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27173796 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0476-8 |
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