Cargando…

The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch

In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theor...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: te Grotenhuis, Manfred, Pelzer, Ben, Luo, Liying, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5016552/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27173796
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0476-8
_version_ 1782452580182392832
author te Grotenhuis, Manfred
Pelzer, Ben
Luo, Liying
Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W.
author_facet te Grotenhuis, Manfred
Pelzer, Ben
Luo, Liying
Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W.
author_sort te Grotenhuis, Manfred
collection PubMed
description In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theoretical justification is needed for its fundamental constraint on minimum variance of the estimates. We next demonstrate IE’s high sensitivity to the type of dummy parameterization used to obtain the estimates. Finally, we discuss challenges in the interpretation of APC models. Our comments are not restricted to the article in question but pertain generally to any research that uses the IE.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-5016552
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2016
publisher Springer US
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-50165522016-09-19 The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch te Grotenhuis, Manfred Pelzer, Ben Luo, Liying Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W. Demography Article In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theoretical justification is needed for its fundamental constraint on minimum variance of the estimates. We next demonstrate IE’s high sensitivity to the type of dummy parameterization used to obtain the estimates. Finally, we discuss challenges in the interpretation of APC models. Our comments are not restricted to the article in question but pertain generally to any research that uses the IE. Springer US 2016-05-12 2016-08 /pmc/articles/PMC5016552/ /pubmed/27173796 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0476-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2016 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Article
te Grotenhuis, Manfred
Pelzer, Ben
Luo, Liying
Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W.
The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch
title The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch
title_full The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch
title_fullStr The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch
title_full_unstemmed The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch
title_short The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch
title_sort intrinsic estimator, alternative estimates, and predictions of mortality trends: a comment on masters, hummer, powers, beck, lin, and finch
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5016552/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27173796
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0476-8
work_keys_str_mv AT tegrotenhuismanfred theintrinsicestimatoralternativeestimatesandpredictionsofmortalitytrendsacommentonmastershummerpowersbecklinandfinch
AT pelzerben theintrinsicestimatoralternativeestimatesandpredictionsofmortalitytrendsacommentonmastershummerpowersbecklinandfinch
AT luoliying theintrinsicestimatoralternativeestimatesandpredictionsofmortalitytrendsacommentonmastershummerpowersbecklinandfinch
AT schmidtcatranalexanderw theintrinsicestimatoralternativeestimatesandpredictionsofmortalitytrendsacommentonmastershummerpowersbecklinandfinch
AT tegrotenhuismanfred intrinsicestimatoralternativeestimatesandpredictionsofmortalitytrendsacommentonmastershummerpowersbecklinandfinch
AT pelzerben intrinsicestimatoralternativeestimatesandpredictionsofmortalitytrendsacommentonmastershummerpowersbecklinandfinch
AT luoliying intrinsicestimatoralternativeestimatesandpredictionsofmortalitytrendsacommentonmastershummerpowersbecklinandfinch
AT schmidtcatranalexanderw intrinsicestimatoralternativeestimatesandpredictionsofmortalitytrendsacommentonmastershummerpowersbecklinandfinch