Cargando…
Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming
Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1–4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine p...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2016
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5016634/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27648228 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2339 |
_version_ | 1782452598192734208 |
---|---|
author | Jarvis, Lauren McCann, Kevin Tunney, Tyler Gellner, Gabriel Fryxell, John M. |
author_facet | Jarvis, Lauren McCann, Kevin Tunney, Tyler Gellner, Gabriel Fryxell, John M. |
author_sort | Jarvis, Lauren |
collection | PubMed |
description | Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1–4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature‐induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5016634 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-50166342016-09-19 Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming Jarvis, Lauren McCann, Kevin Tunney, Tyler Gellner, Gabriel Fryxell, John M. Ecol Evol Original Research Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1–4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature‐induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2016-07-29 /pmc/articles/PMC5016634/ /pubmed/27648228 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2339 Text en © 2016 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Research Jarvis, Lauren McCann, Kevin Tunney, Tyler Gellner, Gabriel Fryxell, John M. Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming |
title | Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming |
title_full | Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming |
title_fullStr | Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming |
title_full_unstemmed | Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming |
title_short | Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming |
title_sort | early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5016634/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27648228 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2339 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT jarvislauren earlywarningsignalsdetectcriticalimpactsofexperimentalwarming AT mccannkevin earlywarningsignalsdetectcriticalimpactsofexperimentalwarming AT tunneytyler earlywarningsignalsdetectcriticalimpactsofexperimentalwarming AT gellnergabriel earlywarningsignalsdetectcriticalimpactsofexperimentalwarming AT fryxelljohnm earlywarningsignalsdetectcriticalimpactsofexperimentalwarming |