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Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City

Emerging diseases may spread rapidly through dense and large urban contact networks, especially they are transmitted by the airborne route, before new vaccines can be made available. Airborne diseases may spread rapidly as people visit different indoor environments and are in frequent contact with o...

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Autores principales: Gao, Xiaolei, Wei, Jianjian, Lei, Hao, Xu, Pengcheng, Cowling, Benjamin J., Li, Yuguo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5017609/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27611368
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0162481
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author Gao, Xiaolei
Wei, Jianjian
Lei, Hao
Xu, Pengcheng
Cowling, Benjamin J.
Li, Yuguo
author_facet Gao, Xiaolei
Wei, Jianjian
Lei, Hao
Xu, Pengcheng
Cowling, Benjamin J.
Li, Yuguo
author_sort Gao, Xiaolei
collection PubMed
description Emerging diseases may spread rapidly through dense and large urban contact networks, especially they are transmitted by the airborne route, before new vaccines can be made available. Airborne diseases may spread rapidly as people visit different indoor environments and are in frequent contact with others. We constructed a simple indoor contact model for an ideal city with 7 million people and 3 million indoor spaces, and estimated the probability and duration of contact between any two individuals during one day. To do this, we used data from actual censuses, social behavior surveys, building surveys, and ventilation measurements in Hong Kong to define eight population groups and seven indoor location groups. Our indoor contact model was integrated with an existing epidemiological Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model to estimate disease spread and with the Wells-Riley equation to calculate local infection risks, resulting in an integrated indoor transmission network model. This model was used to estimate the probability of an infected individual infecting others in the city and to study the disease transmission dynamics. We predicted the infection probability of each sub-population under different ventilation systems in each location type in the case of a hypothetical airborne disease outbreak, which is assumed to have the same natural history and infectiousness as smallpox. We compared the effectiveness of controlling ventilation in each location type with other intervention strategies. We conclude that increasing building ventilation rates using methods such as natural ventilation in classrooms, offices, and homes is a relatively effective strategy for airborne diseases in a large city.
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spelling pubmed-50176092016-09-27 Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City Gao, Xiaolei Wei, Jianjian Lei, Hao Xu, Pengcheng Cowling, Benjamin J. Li, Yuguo PLoS One Research Article Emerging diseases may spread rapidly through dense and large urban contact networks, especially they are transmitted by the airborne route, before new vaccines can be made available. Airborne diseases may spread rapidly as people visit different indoor environments and are in frequent contact with others. We constructed a simple indoor contact model for an ideal city with 7 million people and 3 million indoor spaces, and estimated the probability and duration of contact between any two individuals during one day. To do this, we used data from actual censuses, social behavior surveys, building surveys, and ventilation measurements in Hong Kong to define eight population groups and seven indoor location groups. Our indoor contact model was integrated with an existing epidemiological Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model to estimate disease spread and with the Wells-Riley equation to calculate local infection risks, resulting in an integrated indoor transmission network model. This model was used to estimate the probability of an infected individual infecting others in the city and to study the disease transmission dynamics. We predicted the infection probability of each sub-population under different ventilation systems in each location type in the case of a hypothetical airborne disease outbreak, which is assumed to have the same natural history and infectiousness as smallpox. We compared the effectiveness of controlling ventilation in each location type with other intervention strategies. We conclude that increasing building ventilation rates using methods such as natural ventilation in classrooms, offices, and homes is a relatively effective strategy for airborne diseases in a large city. Public Library of Science 2016-09-09 /pmc/articles/PMC5017609/ /pubmed/27611368 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0162481 Text en © 2016 Gao et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Gao, Xiaolei
Wei, Jianjian
Lei, Hao
Xu, Pengcheng
Cowling, Benjamin J.
Li, Yuguo
Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City
title Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City
title_full Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City
title_fullStr Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City
title_full_unstemmed Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City
title_short Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City
title_sort building ventilation as an effective disease intervention strategy in a dense indoor contact network in an ideal city
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5017609/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27611368
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0162481
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