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Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel
BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) established the MPOWER policy package to provide practical country-level guidance on implementing effective policies to reduce smoking rates. The Abridged SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is app...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5024508/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27651891 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13584-016-0101-8 |
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author | Levy, David Abrams, David B. Levy, Jeffrey Rosen, Laura |
author_facet | Levy, David Abrams, David B. Levy, Jeffrey Rosen, Laura |
author_sort | Levy, David |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) established the MPOWER policy package to provide practical country-level guidance on implementing effective policies to reduce smoking rates. The Abridged SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is applied to Israel to estimate the effects on reducing smoking-attributable mortality resulting from full implementation of MPOWER policies. METHODS: Smoking prevalence from the 2014 Israel National Health Interview Survey 3 and population data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate the number of current smokers. The status of current Israeli policy was determined using information from MPOWER 2015 and from local sources. Based on existing knowledge that between 50 % and 65 % of smokers will die prematurely from smoking, the model is used to determine mortality reductions among current smokers from full implementation of MPOWER policies. RESULTS: We estimate that between 550 and 710 thousand smokers of the current 1.1 million Israeli smokers will prematurely die due to smoking. Within 40 years, complete implementation of MPOWER policies is projected to reduce smoking prevalence among current smokers by 34 % and avert between 188 and 245 thousand deaths among current smokers. Taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions and media campaigns each reduce smoking by about 5 % within 5 years. Improved cessation treatment and health warnings each have smaller effects in the next five years, but their effects grow rapidly over time. CONCLUSIONS: Israel Abridged SimSmoke shows that complete implementation of the MPOWER strategies has the potential to substantially reduce smoking prevalence, and avert premature deaths due to smoking. Additional benefits are also expected from reduced morbidity, reduced initiation among nonsmokers, and reduction in exposure of nonsmokers to tobacco smoke. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5024508 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-50245082016-09-20 Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel Levy, David Abrams, David B. Levy, Jeffrey Rosen, Laura Isr J Health Policy Res Original Research Article BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) established the MPOWER policy package to provide practical country-level guidance on implementing effective policies to reduce smoking rates. The Abridged SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is applied to Israel to estimate the effects on reducing smoking-attributable mortality resulting from full implementation of MPOWER policies. METHODS: Smoking prevalence from the 2014 Israel National Health Interview Survey 3 and population data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate the number of current smokers. The status of current Israeli policy was determined using information from MPOWER 2015 and from local sources. Based on existing knowledge that between 50 % and 65 % of smokers will die prematurely from smoking, the model is used to determine mortality reductions among current smokers from full implementation of MPOWER policies. RESULTS: We estimate that between 550 and 710 thousand smokers of the current 1.1 million Israeli smokers will prematurely die due to smoking. Within 40 years, complete implementation of MPOWER policies is projected to reduce smoking prevalence among current smokers by 34 % and avert between 188 and 245 thousand deaths among current smokers. Taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions and media campaigns each reduce smoking by about 5 % within 5 years. Improved cessation treatment and health warnings each have smaller effects in the next five years, but their effects grow rapidly over time. CONCLUSIONS: Israel Abridged SimSmoke shows that complete implementation of the MPOWER strategies has the potential to substantially reduce smoking prevalence, and avert premature deaths due to smoking. Additional benefits are also expected from reduced morbidity, reduced initiation among nonsmokers, and reduction in exposure of nonsmokers to tobacco smoke. BioMed Central 2016-09-15 /pmc/articles/PMC5024508/ /pubmed/27651891 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13584-016-0101-8 Text en © The Author(s). 2016 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
spellingShingle | Original Research Article Levy, David Abrams, David B. Levy, Jeffrey Rosen, Laura Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel |
title | Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel |
title_full | Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel |
title_fullStr | Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel |
title_full_unstemmed | Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel |
title_short | Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel |
title_sort | complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the abridged simsmoke model to israel |
topic | Original Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5024508/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27651891 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13584-016-0101-8 |
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