Rates and drivers of progression to pre-diabetes and diabetes mellitus among HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy: a global systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION: With the new ‘test and treat’ policy of the WHO, it is obvious that the number of HIV-infected patients taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) will grow exponentially, with consequential increase in the burden of diabetes mellitus (DM). Our aim is to summarise existing data on the incidence of pre-diabetes and DM, and associated risk factors among HIV-infected adults. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This systematic review will include cohort studies reporting the incidence of pre-diabetes and/or DM, and associated risk factors among HIV-infected adults on ART, with these patients being free of any impaired glucose metabolism at study baseline. We will perform electronic searches in PubMed, Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), Web of Science and WHO Global Health Library, supplemented with manual searches. Articles published from 1 January 2000 to 31 July 2016, in English or French languages, and without any geographical restriction will be eligible for inclusion. 3 authors will independently screen, select studies, extract data and assess the risk of bias with discrepancies resolved by consensus. We will assess clinical heterogeneity by examining the study design and setting, criteria and cut-offs used to define pre-diabetes or DM, process of calculation of incidence and outcomes in each study. We will also assess statistical heterogeneity using the χ(2) test of homogeneity and quantify it using the I(2) statistic. A random effects meta-analysis will be used to estimate the overall cumulative incidence of pre-diabetes/DM and risk factors. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This systematic review will use data from published studies and does not require ethics approval. Its results are expected to help putting in place action plans and preventive measures to curb the growing burden of DM in the HIV population on ART. Findings will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at scientific conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016039651.