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Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)

Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a host metapopulation representing the temperate north, tropics...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wen, Frank, Bedford, Trevor, Cobey, Sarah
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5031657/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27629034
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.1312
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author Wen, Frank
Bedford, Trevor
Cobey, Sarah
author_facet Wen, Frank
Bedford, Trevor
Cobey, Sarah
author_sort Wen, Frank
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description Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a host metapopulation representing the temperate north, tropics and temperate south. Although seasonality and air traffic are frequently used to explain global migratory patterns of influenza, we find that other factors may have a comparable or greater impact. Notably, a region's basic reproductive number (R(0)) strongly affects the antigenic evolution of its viral population and the probability that its strains will spread and fix globally: a 17–28% higher R(0) in one region can explain the observed patterns. Seasonality, in contrast, increases the probability that a tropical (less seasonal) population will export evolutionarily successful strains but alone does not predict that these strains will be antigenically advanced. The relative sizes of different host populations, their birth and death rates, and the region in which H3N2 first appears affect influenza's phylogeography in different but relatively minor ways. These results suggest general principles that dictate the spatial dynamics of antigenically evolving pathogens and offer predictions for how changes in human ecology might affect influenza evolution.
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spelling pubmed-50316572016-09-22 Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) Wen, Frank Bedford, Trevor Cobey, Sarah Proc Biol Sci Research Articles Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a host metapopulation representing the temperate north, tropics and temperate south. Although seasonality and air traffic are frequently used to explain global migratory patterns of influenza, we find that other factors may have a comparable or greater impact. Notably, a region's basic reproductive number (R(0)) strongly affects the antigenic evolution of its viral population and the probability that its strains will spread and fix globally: a 17–28% higher R(0) in one region can explain the observed patterns. Seasonality, in contrast, increases the probability that a tropical (less seasonal) population will export evolutionarily successful strains but alone does not predict that these strains will be antigenically advanced. The relative sizes of different host populations, their birth and death rates, and the region in which H3N2 first appears affect influenza's phylogeography in different but relatively minor ways. These results suggest general principles that dictate the spatial dynamics of antigenically evolving pathogens and offer predictions for how changes in human ecology might affect influenza evolution. The Royal Society 2016-09-14 /pmc/articles/PMC5031657/ /pubmed/27629034 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.1312 Text en © 2016 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Wen, Frank
Bedford, Trevor
Cobey, Sarah
Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)
title Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)
title_full Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)
title_fullStr Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)
title_full_unstemmed Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)
title_short Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)
title_sort explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza a (h3n2)
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5031657/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27629034
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.1312
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