Colluvium supply in humid regions limits the frequency of storm-triggered landslides

Shallow landslides, triggered by extreme rainfall, are a significant hazard in mountainous landscapes. The hazard posed by shallow landslides depends on the availability and strength of colluvial material in landslide source areas and the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. Here we investigate how the time taken to accumulate colluvium affects landslide triggering rate in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA and how this may affect future landslide hazards. We calculated the failure potential of 283 hollows by comparing colluvium depths to the minimum (critical) soil depth required for landslide initiation in each hollow. Our data show that most hollow soil depths are close to their critical depth, with 62% of hollows having soils that are too thin to fail. Our results, supported by numerical modeling, reveal that landslide frequency in many humid landscapes may be insensitive to projected changes in the frequency of intense rainfall events.