Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula

We quantify outbreak risk after importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome outside the Arabian Peninsula. Data from 31 importation events show strong statistical support for lower transmissibility after early transmission generations. Our model projects the risk of ≥10, 100, and 500 transmissi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Toth, Damon J.A., Tanner, Windy D., Khader, Karim, Gundlapalli, Adi V.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2016
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5047297/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27663788
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.04.002
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author Toth, Damon J.A.
Tanner, Windy D.
Khader, Karim
Gundlapalli, Adi V.
author_facet Toth, Damon J.A.
Tanner, Windy D.
Khader, Karim
Gundlapalli, Adi V.
author_sort Toth, Damon J.A.
collection PubMed
description We quantify outbreak risk after importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome outside the Arabian Peninsula. Data from 31 importation events show strong statistical support for lower transmissibility after early transmission generations. Our model projects the risk of ≥10, 100, and 500 transmissions as 11%, 2%, and 0.02%, and ≥1, 2, 3, and 4 generations as 23%, 14%, 0.9%, and 0.05%, respectively. Our results suggest tempered risk of large, long-lasting outbreaks with appropriate control measures.
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spelling pubmed-50472972017-09-01 Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula Toth, Damon J.A. Tanner, Windy D. Khader, Karim Gundlapalli, Adi V. Epidemics Article We quantify outbreak risk after importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome outside the Arabian Peninsula. Data from 31 importation events show strong statistical support for lower transmissibility after early transmission generations. Our model projects the risk of ≥10, 100, and 500 transmissions as 11%, 2%, and 0.02%, and ≥1, 2, 3, and 4 generations as 23%, 14%, 0.9%, and 0.05%, respectively. Our results suggest tempered risk of large, long-lasting outbreaks with appropriate control measures. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2016-09 2016-05-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5047297/ /pubmed/27663788 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.04.002 Text en © 2016 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Toth, Damon J.A.
Tanner, Windy D.
Khader, Karim
Gundlapalli, Adi V.
Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula
title Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula
title_full Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula
title_fullStr Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula
title_full_unstemmed Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula
title_short Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula
title_sort estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of middle east respiratory syndrome after importations outside the arabian peninsula
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5047297/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27663788
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.04.002
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