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Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study
BACKGROUND: The evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days. OBJECTIVES: We developed a novel method to calculate TV and investigated TV-mortality associations using a large multicountry data set. METHODS: We collecte...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5047764/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27258598 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP149 |
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author | Guo, Yuming Gasparrini, Antonio Armstrong, Ben G. Tawatsupa, Benjawan Tobias, Aurelio Lavigne, Eric Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Pan, Xiaochuan Kim, Ho Hashizume, Masahiro Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Wu, Chang-Fu Zanobetti, Antonella Schwartz, Joel D. Bell, Michelle L. Overcenco, Ala Punnasiri, Kornwipa Li, Shanshan Tian, Linwei Saldiva, Paulo Williams, Gail Tong, Shilu |
author_facet | Guo, Yuming Gasparrini, Antonio Armstrong, Ben G. Tawatsupa, Benjawan Tobias, Aurelio Lavigne, Eric Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Pan, Xiaochuan Kim, Ho Hashizume, Masahiro Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Wu, Chang-Fu Zanobetti, Antonella Schwartz, Joel D. Bell, Michelle L. Overcenco, Ala Punnasiri, Kornwipa Li, Shanshan Tian, Linwei Saldiva, Paulo Williams, Gail Tong, Shilu |
author_sort | Guo, Yuming |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: The evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days. OBJECTIVES: We developed a novel method to calculate TV and investigated TV-mortality associations using a large multicountry data set. METHODS: We collected daily data for temperature and mortality from 372 locations in 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Moldova, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). We calculated TV from the standard deviation of the minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. Two-stage analyses were used to assess the relationship between TV and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression model allowing over-dispersion was used to estimate the community-specific TV-mortality relationship, after controlling for potential confounders. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effect estimates within each country. RESULTS: There was a significant association between TV and mortality in all countries, even after controlling for the effects of daily mean temperature. In stratified analyses, TV was still significantly associated with mortality in cold, hot, and moderate seasons. Mortality risks related to TV were higher in hot areas than in cold areas when using short TV exposures (0–1 days), whereas TV-related mortality risks were higher in moderate areas than in cold and hot areas when using longer TV exposures (0–7 days). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in order to protect health. These findings may have implications for developing public health policies to manage health risks of climate change. CITATION: Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, Coelho MS, Pan X, Kim H, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Guo YL, Wu CF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Bell ML, Overcenco A, Punnasiri K, Li S, Tian L, Saldiva P, Williams G, Tong S. 2016. Temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study. Environ Health Perspect 124:1554–1559; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP149 |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5047764 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-50477642016-10-10 Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study Guo, Yuming Gasparrini, Antonio Armstrong, Ben G. Tawatsupa, Benjawan Tobias, Aurelio Lavigne, Eric Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Pan, Xiaochuan Kim, Ho Hashizume, Masahiro Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Wu, Chang-Fu Zanobetti, Antonella Schwartz, Joel D. Bell, Michelle L. Overcenco, Ala Punnasiri, Kornwipa Li, Shanshan Tian, Linwei Saldiva, Paulo Williams, Gail Tong, Shilu Environ Health Perspect Research BACKGROUND: The evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days. OBJECTIVES: We developed a novel method to calculate TV and investigated TV-mortality associations using a large multicountry data set. METHODS: We collected daily data for temperature and mortality from 372 locations in 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Moldova, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). We calculated TV from the standard deviation of the minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. Two-stage analyses were used to assess the relationship between TV and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression model allowing over-dispersion was used to estimate the community-specific TV-mortality relationship, after controlling for potential confounders. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effect estimates within each country. RESULTS: There was a significant association between TV and mortality in all countries, even after controlling for the effects of daily mean temperature. In stratified analyses, TV was still significantly associated with mortality in cold, hot, and moderate seasons. Mortality risks related to TV were higher in hot areas than in cold areas when using short TV exposures (0–1 days), whereas TV-related mortality risks were higher in moderate areas than in cold and hot areas when using longer TV exposures (0–7 days). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in order to protect health. These findings may have implications for developing public health policies to manage health risks of climate change. CITATION: Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, Coelho MS, Pan X, Kim H, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Guo YL, Wu CF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Bell ML, Overcenco A, Punnasiri K, Li S, Tian L, Saldiva P, Williams G, Tong S. 2016. Temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study. Environ Health Perspect 124:1554–1559; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP149 National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences 2016-06-03 2016-10 /pmc/articles/PMC5047764/ /pubmed/27258598 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP149 Text en http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from EHP may be reprinted freely. Use of materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, “Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives”); pertinent reference information should be provided for the article from which the material was reproduced. Articles from EHP, especially the News section, may contain photographs or illustrations copyrighted by other commercial organizations or individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from the holder of the copyright. |
spellingShingle | Research Guo, Yuming Gasparrini, Antonio Armstrong, Ben G. Tawatsupa, Benjawan Tobias, Aurelio Lavigne, Eric Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Pan, Xiaochuan Kim, Ho Hashizume, Masahiro Honda, Yasushi Guo, Yue Leon Wu, Chang-Fu Zanobetti, Antonella Schwartz, Joel D. Bell, Michelle L. Overcenco, Ala Punnasiri, Kornwipa Li, Shanshan Tian, Linwei Saldiva, Paulo Williams, Gail Tong, Shilu Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study |
title | Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study |
title_full | Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study |
title_fullStr | Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study |
title_full_unstemmed | Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study |
title_short | Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study |
title_sort | temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5047764/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27258598 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP149 |
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