Latent class evaluation of three serological tests for the diagnosis of human brucellosis in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND: A Bayesian latent class evaluation was used to estimate the true prevalence of brucellosis in livestock farmers and patients with prolonged pyrexia (PP) and to validate three conditionally dependent serological tests: indirect ELISA (iELISA), Rose Bengal Test (RBT), and standard tube agglutination (STAT). A total of 335 sera from livestock farmers and 300 sera from PP patients were investigated. RESULTS: The true prevalence of brucellosis in livestock farmers and PP patients was estimated to be 1.1 % (95 % credibility interval (CrI) 0.1–2.8) and 1.7 % (95 % CrI 0.2–4.1), respectively. Specificities of all tests investigated were higher than 97.8 % (95 % CrI 96.1–99.9). The sensitivities varied from 68.1 % (95 % CrI 54.5–80.7) to 80.6 % (95 % CrI 63.6–93.8). The negative predictive value of all the three tests in both populations was very high and more than 99.5 % (95 % CrI 98.6–99.9). The positive predictive value (PPV) of all three tests varied from 27.9 % (95 % CrI 3.6–62.0) to 36.3 % (95 % CrI 5.6–70.5) in livestock farmers and 39.8 % (95 % CrI 6.0–75.2) to 42.7 % (95 % CrI 6.4–83.2) in patients with PP. The highest PPV were 36.3 % for iELISA and 42.7 % for RBT in livestock farmers and pyrexic patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In such a low prevalence scenario, serology alone does not help in diagnosis and thereby therapeutic decision-making. Applying a second test with high specificity and/or testing patients having history of exposure with known risk factors and/or testing patients having some clinical signs and symptoms of brucellosis may increase the positive predictive value of the serologic tests. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s41182-016-0031-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.