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Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China

Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of fac...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Zhao, Jijun, Li, Xinmin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5049751/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27701445
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163789
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author Zhao, Jijun
Li, Xinmin
author_facet Zhao, Jijun
Li, Xinmin
author_sort Zhao, Jijun
collection PubMed
description Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of factors, including meteorological, demographic and public health intervention factors, were carefully selected and their effects on HFMD transmission were investigated with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The determining factors for the variation of HFMD transmission were different for the southeastern and the northwestern regions of China. In the northwest, fadeouts occurred yearly, and the average age at infection and the fadeout were negatively correlated with the population density. In the southeast, HFMD transmission was governed by the combined effects of the birth rate, the relative humidity and the interaction of the Health System Performance and the log of the population density. When the Health System Performance was low, HFMD transmission increased with the population density, but when the Health System Performance was high, the better health performance counteracted the transmission increase due to the higher population density.
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spelling pubmed-50497512016-10-27 Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China Zhao, Jijun Li, Xinmin PLoS One Research Article Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of factors, including meteorological, demographic and public health intervention factors, were carefully selected and their effects on HFMD transmission were investigated with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The determining factors for the variation of HFMD transmission were different for the southeastern and the northwestern regions of China. In the northwest, fadeouts occurred yearly, and the average age at infection and the fadeout were negatively correlated with the population density. In the southeast, HFMD transmission was governed by the combined effects of the birth rate, the relative humidity and the interaction of the Health System Performance and the log of the population density. When the Health System Performance was low, HFMD transmission increased with the population density, but when the Health System Performance was high, the better health performance counteracted the transmission increase due to the higher population density. Public Library of Science 2016-10-04 /pmc/articles/PMC5049751/ /pubmed/27701445 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163789 Text en © 2016 Zhao, Li http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Zhao, Jijun
Li, Xinmin
Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_full Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_fullStr Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_full_unstemmed Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_short Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China
title_sort determinants of the transmission variation of hand, foot and mouth disease in china
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5049751/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27701445
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163789
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