Prognostic Factors and Complications in Patients With Operational Peptic Ulcer Perforation in Northern Thailand

BACKGROUND: Peptic ulcer perforation (PUP) is a very serious condition that leads to excessive complications and mortality. This study aimed to explore the possible prognostic factors and complications in patients with perforated peptic ulcer operation. METHODS: A 6-year retrospective cohort study in Nakornping Hospital between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2010 was conducted. The study included 912 patients who underwent PUP surgery. Patient characteristics were analyzed by using frequency, percentage, mean (standard deviation) and median (range). A comparison between groups was made. The Pearson’s Chi-squared or Fisher’s exact test was used for categorical variables, as appropriate. The Student’s t test was used for continuous variables with normal distribution, and Wilcoxon rank sum test was performed for continuous variables with non-normal distributions. Exponential risk regression analysis was performed to estimate the relative risk (RR) for the prognostic factors with a probability value of < 0.05 as a statistically significant value. Post-operative length of stay was computed graphically based on Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: During the study period, 912 post-operative PUP patients were observed. The median age of patients was 78.5 (15 - 92) years, and 77.74% of the patients were male gender. Multivariate analysis showed that five prognostic indicators: underlying illnesses; liver disease (RR: 5.41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36 - 21.56) and kidney disease (RR: 4.72; 95% CI: 1.05 - 21.11); duration of operation > 3 h (RR: 9.83; 95% CI: 1.61-59.66); unplanned admission to ICU (RR: 9.22; 95% CI: 1.55 - 54.68); and prolonged ventilation > 24 h (RR: 9.02; 95% CI: 0.42 - 9.98) were associated with post-operative PUP complications. Post-operative complications developed in 87 (9.54%) patients with 135 complications: 11 (1.21%) patients underwent re-operation, 32 (3.51%) patients suffered with surgical site infection, 74 (8.11%) patients encountered with pneumonia and 18 (1.97%) patients died. Post-operative complications including surgical site infection (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 2.00; 95% CI: 0.76 - 5.27), re-operation (IRR: 2.65; 95% CI: 0.73 - 9.62) and pneumonia (IRR: 6.97; 95% CI: 6.30 - 7.70) tend to be associated with mortality. The risk ratio showed a trend towards an increased risk for post-operative mortality with smaller values. However, this trend was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The findings might have clinical importance as to optimize the surgical management of PUP and to minimize the complications or mortality.