Probit Models to Investigate Prevalence of Total Diagnosed and Undiagnosed Diabetes among Aged 45 Years or Older Adults in China

The aims of this study are to identify the most important predictors of total diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes and estimate the mean change in the predicted probability among aged 45+ adults in China. We used baseline data collected from 2011 wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) (n = 9,513). First, we estimated the prevalence of diagnosed, measured, total diagnosed, and undiagnosed diabetes. Second, we used probit models to determine whether individual attributes, socioeconomic characteristics and behavioral health factors, including smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, central obesity, are associated with total diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes. We also consider other factors, including contact with medical system, hypertension and urban/rural settings. Third, we estimated average marginal effects of variables in probit models. Among Chinese people aged 45+, the prevalence of diagnosed, measured, total diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes were 5.8% (95%CI, 5.3%-6.3%), 14.7% (95%CI, 14.0%-15.4%), 17.0% (95%CI, 16.3%-17.7%), 11.3% (95%CI, 10.6%-12.0%), respectively. The probability of total diagnosed diabetes is 3.3% (95% CI, 1.2%-5.3%) and 10.2% (95% CI, 7.0%-13.5%) higher for overweight and obesity than normal BMI, 5.0% (95% CI, 3.0%-7.1%) higher for central obesity than normal waist circumference, 5.4% (95% CI, 3.7%-7.0%) higher for hypertensive than normotensive and 1.8% (95% CI, 0.8%- 2.7%) higher in urban areas than in rural areas, respectively. The probability of undiagnosed diabetes is 2.7% (95% CI, 1.2%-4.2%) and 7.2% (95% CI, 4.7%-9.6%) higher for overweight and obesity than normal BMI, 2.6% (95% CI, 0.9%-4.4%) higher for central obesity than normal waist circumference and 2.6% (95% CI, 1.2%-4.0%) higher for hypertensive than normotensive, respectively, and -1.5% (95% CI, -2.5% to -0.5%) lower for individuals who were in contact with the medical system. Greater focus on prevention of diabetes is necessary for obesity, central obesity, hypertensive and in urban areas for middle-aged and older in China.