Interannual and Spatial Variability in Maturity of Walleye Pollock Gadus chalcogrammus and Implications for Spawning Stock Biomass Estimates in the Gulf of Alaska

Catch quotas for walleye pollock Gadus chalcogrammus, the dominant species in the groundfish fishery off Alaska, are set by applying harvest control rules to annual estimates of spawning stock biomass (SSB) from age-structured stock assessments. Adult walleye pollock abundance and maturity status have been monitored in early spring in Shelikof Strait in the Gulf of Alaska for almost three decades. The sampling strategy for maturity status is largely characterized as targeted, albeit opportunistic, sampling of trawl tows made during hydroacoustic surveys. Trawl sampling during pre-spawning biomass surveys, which do not adequately account for spatial patterns in the distribution of immature and mature fish, can bias estimated maturity ogives from which SSB is calculated. Utilizing these maturity data, we developed mixed-effects generalized additive models to examine spatial and temporal patterns in walleye pollock maturity and the influence of these patterns on estimates of SSB. Current stock assessment practice is to estimate SSB as the product of annual estimates of numbers at age, weight at age, and mean maturity at age for 1983-present. In practice, we found this strategy to be conservative for a time period from 2003–2013 as, on average, it underestimates SSB by a 4.7 to 11.9% difference when compared to our estimates of SSB that account for spatial structure or both temporal and spatial structure. Inclusion of spatially explicit information for walleye pollock maturity has implications for understanding stock reproductive biology and thus the setting of sustainable harvest rates used to manage this valuable fishery.