A Multi-Faceted Approach to Analyse the Effects of Environmental Variables on Geographic Range and Genetic Structure of a Perennial Psammophilous Geophyte: The Case of the Sea Daffodil Pancratium maritimum L. in the Mediterranean Basin

The Mediterranean coastline is a dynamic and complex system which owes its complexity to its past and present vicissitudes, e.g. complex tectonic history, climatic fluctuations, and prolonged coexistence with human activities. A plant species that is widespread in this habitat is the sea daffodil, Pancratium maritimum (Amaryllidaceae), which is a perennial clonal geophyte of the coastal sands of the Mediterranean and neighbouring areas, well adapted to the stressful conditions of sand dune environments. In this study, an integrated approach was used, combining genetic and environmental data with a niche modelling approach, aimed to investigate: (1) the effect of climate change on the geographic range of this species at different times {past (last inter-glacial, LIG; and last glacial maximum, LGM), present (CURR), near-future (FUT)} and (2) the possible influence of environmental variables on the genetic structure of this species in the current period. The genetic results show that 48 sea daffodil populations (867 specimens) display a good genetic diversity in which the marginal populations (i.e. Atlantic Sea populations) present lower values. Recent genetic signature of bottleneck was detected in few populations (8%). The molecular variation was higher within the populations (77%) and two genetic pools were well represented. Comparing the different climatic simulations in time, the global range of this plant increased, and a further extension is foreseen in the near future thanks to projections on the climate of areas currently—more temperate, where our model suggested a forecast for a climate more similar to the Mediterranean coast. A significant positive correlation was observed between the genetic distance and Precipitation of Coldest Quarter variable in current periods. Our analyses support the hypothesis that geomorphology of the Mediterranean coasts, sea currents, and climate have played significant roles in shaping the current genetic structure of the sea daffodil especially during LGM because of strong variation in coastline caused by glaciations.