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Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn’t Fit All

The structure of contacts that mediate transmission has a pronounced effect on the outbreak dynamics of infectious disease and simulation models are powerful tools to inform policy decisions. Most simulation models of livestock disease spread rely to some degree on predictions of animal movement bet...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Brommesson, Peter, Wennergren, Uno, Lindström, Tom
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5070834/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27760155
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0164008
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author Brommesson, Peter
Wennergren, Uno
Lindström, Tom
author_facet Brommesson, Peter
Wennergren, Uno
Lindström, Tom
author_sort Brommesson, Peter
collection PubMed
description The structure of contacts that mediate transmission has a pronounced effect on the outbreak dynamics of infectious disease and simulation models are powerful tools to inform policy decisions. Most simulation models of livestock disease spread rely to some degree on predictions of animal movement between holdings. Typically, movements are more common between nearby farms than between those located far away from each other. Here, we assessed spatiotemporal variation in such distance dependence of animal movement contacts from an epidemiological perspective. We evaluated and compared nine statistical models, applied to Swedish movement data from 2008. The models differed in at what level (if at all), they accounted for regional and/or seasonal heterogeneities in the distance dependence of the contacts. Using a kernel approach to describe how probability of contacts between farms changes with distance, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian framework and estimated parameters by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We evaluated models by three different approaches of model selection. First, we used Deviance Information Criterion to evaluate their performance relative to each other. Secondly, we estimated the log predictive posterior distribution, this was also used to evaluate their relative performance. Thirdly, we performed posterior predictive checks by simulating movements with each of the parameterized models and evaluated their ability to recapture relevant summary statistics. Independent of selection criteria, we found that accounting for regional heterogeneity improved model accuracy. We also found that accounting for seasonal heterogeneity was beneficial, in terms of model accuracy, according to two of three methods used for model selection. Our results have important implications for livestock disease spread models where movement is an important risk factor for between farm transmission. We argue that modelers should refrain from using methods to simulate animal movements that assume the same pattern across all regions and seasons without explicitly testing for spatiotemporal variation.
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spelling pubmed-50708342016-10-27 Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn’t Fit All Brommesson, Peter Wennergren, Uno Lindström, Tom PLoS One Research Article The structure of contacts that mediate transmission has a pronounced effect on the outbreak dynamics of infectious disease and simulation models are powerful tools to inform policy decisions. Most simulation models of livestock disease spread rely to some degree on predictions of animal movement between holdings. Typically, movements are more common between nearby farms than between those located far away from each other. Here, we assessed spatiotemporal variation in such distance dependence of animal movement contacts from an epidemiological perspective. We evaluated and compared nine statistical models, applied to Swedish movement data from 2008. The models differed in at what level (if at all), they accounted for regional and/or seasonal heterogeneities in the distance dependence of the contacts. Using a kernel approach to describe how probability of contacts between farms changes with distance, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian framework and estimated parameters by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We evaluated models by three different approaches of model selection. First, we used Deviance Information Criterion to evaluate their performance relative to each other. Secondly, we estimated the log predictive posterior distribution, this was also used to evaluate their relative performance. Thirdly, we performed posterior predictive checks by simulating movements with each of the parameterized models and evaluated their ability to recapture relevant summary statistics. Independent of selection criteria, we found that accounting for regional heterogeneity improved model accuracy. We also found that accounting for seasonal heterogeneity was beneficial, in terms of model accuracy, according to two of three methods used for model selection. Our results have important implications for livestock disease spread models where movement is an important risk factor for between farm transmission. We argue that modelers should refrain from using methods to simulate animal movements that assume the same pattern across all regions and seasons without explicitly testing for spatiotemporal variation. Public Library of Science 2016-10-19 /pmc/articles/PMC5070834/ /pubmed/27760155 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0164008 Text en © 2016 Brommesson et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Brommesson, Peter
Wennergren, Uno
Lindström, Tom
Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn’t Fit All
title Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn’t Fit All
title_full Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn’t Fit All
title_fullStr Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn’t Fit All
title_full_unstemmed Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn’t Fit All
title_short Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn’t Fit All
title_sort spatiotemporal variation in distance dependent animal movement contacts: one size doesn’t fit all
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5070834/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27760155
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0164008
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