In Which Neighborhoods Are Older Adult Populations Expanding? Sociodemographic and Built Environment Characteristics Across Neighborhood Trajectory Classes of Older Adult Populations in Four U.S. Cities Over 30 Years

Objective: We sought to examine characteristics of neighborhoods with changing older adult populations. Method: We used 30 years (1980-2011) of data from four U.S. cities (n = 392 neighborhoods; Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Oakland, California) and finite mixture modeling to identify trajectory classes: neighborhoods with “stable,” declining, or increasing older adult populations (≥65 years). We then compared mean baseline and change in their characteristics. Results: Neighborhoods with an increasing (vs. “stable”) percentage of older adult populations had lower initial poverty and greater increases in education and income, with lower increases in road connectivity, population density, and housing prices/debt over time. The same was true for neighborhoods with declining older adult populations, with the exception of having higher increases in housing prices/debt. We observed few significant differences in neighborhood amenities or parks across classes. Conclusion: Our results emphasize the need to consider built and social environments when planning communities for older adults.