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Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia

BACKGROUND: CancerMath is a set of web-based prognostic tools which predict nodal status and survival up to 15 years after diagnosis of breast cancer. This study validated its performance in a Southeast Asian setting. METHODS: Using Singapore Malaysia Hospital-Based Breast Cancer Registry, clinical...

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Autores principales: Miao, Hui, Hartman, Mikael, Verkooijen, Helena M., Taib, Nur Aishah, Wong, Hoong-Seam, Subramaniam, Shridevi, Yip, Cheng-Har, Tan, Ern-Yu, Chan, Patrick, Lee, Soo-Chin, Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5073834/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27769212
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12885-016-2841-9
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author Miao, Hui
Hartman, Mikael
Verkooijen, Helena M.
Taib, Nur Aishah
Wong, Hoong-Seam
Subramaniam, Shridevi
Yip, Cheng-Har
Tan, Ern-Yu
Chan, Patrick
Lee, Soo-Chin
Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala
author_facet Miao, Hui
Hartman, Mikael
Verkooijen, Helena M.
Taib, Nur Aishah
Wong, Hoong-Seam
Subramaniam, Shridevi
Yip, Cheng-Har
Tan, Ern-Yu
Chan, Patrick
Lee, Soo-Chin
Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala
author_sort Miao, Hui
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: CancerMath is a set of web-based prognostic tools which predict nodal status and survival up to 15 years after diagnosis of breast cancer. This study validated its performance in a Southeast Asian setting. METHODS: Using Singapore Malaysia Hospital-Based Breast Cancer Registry, clinical information was retrieved from 7064 stage I to III breast cancer patients who were diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and underwent surgery. Predicted and observed probabilities of positive nodes and survival were compared for each subgroup. Calibration was assessed by plotting observed value against predicted value for each decile of the predicted value. Discrimination was evaluated by area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95 % confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The median predicted probability of positive lymph nodes is 40.6 % which was lower than the observed 43.6 % (95 % CI, 42.5 %–44.8 %). The calibration plot showed underestimation for most of the groups. The AUC was 0.71 (95 % CI, 0.70–0.72). Cancermath predicted and observed overall survival probabilities were 87.3 % vs 83.4 % at 5 years after diagnosis and 75.3 % vs 70.4 % at 10 years after diagnosis. The difference was smaller for patients from Singapore, patients diagnosed more recently and patients with favorable tumor characteristics. Calibration plot also illustrated overprediction of survival for patients with poor prognosis. The AUC for 5-year and 10-year overall survival was 0.77 (95 % CI: 0.75–0.79) and 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.71–0.76). CONCLUSIONS: The discrimination and calibration of CancerMath were modest. The results suggest that clinical application of CancerMath should be limited to patients with better prognostic profile.
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spelling pubmed-50738342016-10-26 Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia Miao, Hui Hartman, Mikael Verkooijen, Helena M. Taib, Nur Aishah Wong, Hoong-Seam Subramaniam, Shridevi Yip, Cheng-Har Tan, Ern-Yu Chan, Patrick Lee, Soo-Chin Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala BMC Cancer Research Article BACKGROUND: CancerMath is a set of web-based prognostic tools which predict nodal status and survival up to 15 years after diagnosis of breast cancer. This study validated its performance in a Southeast Asian setting. METHODS: Using Singapore Malaysia Hospital-Based Breast Cancer Registry, clinical information was retrieved from 7064 stage I to III breast cancer patients who were diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and underwent surgery. Predicted and observed probabilities of positive nodes and survival were compared for each subgroup. Calibration was assessed by plotting observed value against predicted value for each decile of the predicted value. Discrimination was evaluated by area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95 % confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The median predicted probability of positive lymph nodes is 40.6 % which was lower than the observed 43.6 % (95 % CI, 42.5 %–44.8 %). The calibration plot showed underestimation for most of the groups. The AUC was 0.71 (95 % CI, 0.70–0.72). Cancermath predicted and observed overall survival probabilities were 87.3 % vs 83.4 % at 5 years after diagnosis and 75.3 % vs 70.4 % at 10 years after diagnosis. The difference was smaller for patients from Singapore, patients diagnosed more recently and patients with favorable tumor characteristics. Calibration plot also illustrated overprediction of survival for patients with poor prognosis. The AUC for 5-year and 10-year overall survival was 0.77 (95 % CI: 0.75–0.79) and 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.71–0.76). CONCLUSIONS: The discrimination and calibration of CancerMath were modest. The results suggest that clinical application of CancerMath should be limited to patients with better prognostic profile. BioMed Central 2016-10-21 /pmc/articles/PMC5073834/ /pubmed/27769212 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12885-016-2841-9 Text en © The Author(s). 2016 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research Article
Miao, Hui
Hartman, Mikael
Verkooijen, Helena M.
Taib, Nur Aishah
Wong, Hoong-Seam
Subramaniam, Shridevi
Yip, Cheng-Har
Tan, Ern-Yu
Chan, Patrick
Lee, Soo-Chin
Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala
Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia
title Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia
title_full Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia
title_fullStr Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia
title_full_unstemmed Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia
title_short Validation of the CancerMath prognostic tool for breast cancer in Southeast Asia
title_sort validation of the cancermath prognostic tool for breast cancer in southeast asia
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5073834/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27769212
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12885-016-2841-9
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