Clinical predictive factors of pathologic complete response in locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND: Predictive factors of pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) are still not identified. The purpose of this study was to define them. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from consecutive LARC patients treated between January 2008 and June 2014 at our Institution were included in the analysis. All patients were treated with a long course of nCRT. Demographics, initial diagnosis and tumor extension details, as well as treatment modalities characteristics were included in the univariate and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: In total 99 patients received nCRT, of whom 23 patients (23.2%) achieved pCR. Patients with and without pCR were similar in term of age, sex, comobidities, BMI and tumor characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that pre-treatment tumor size ≤ 5 cm was a significant predictor for pCR (p = 0.035), whereas clinical N stage only showed a positive trend (p = 0.084). CONCLUSIONS: Tumor size at diagnosis could be used to predict pCR, and thus to individualize therapy in LARC patients management. Validation in other studies is needed.