Development and Validation of a Novel Recurrence Risk Stratification for Initial Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer in Asia

BACKGROUND: Some risk classifications to determine prognosis of patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) have disadvantages in the clinical setting. We investigated whether the EORTC (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer) risk stratification is useful to predict recurrence and progression in Japanese patients with NMIBC. In addition, we developed and validated a novel, and simple risk classification of recurrence. METHODS: The analysis was based on 1085 patients with NMIBC at six hospitals. Excluding recurrent cases, we included 856 patients with initial NMIBC for the analysis. The Kaplan–Meier method with the log-rank test were used to calculate recurrence-free survival (RFS) rate and progression-free survival (PFS) rate according to the EORTC risk classifications. We developed a novel risk classification system for recurrence in NMIBC patients using the independent recurrence prognostic factors based on Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. External validation was done on an external data set of 641 patients from Kyorin University Hospital. FINDINGS: There were no significant differences in RFS and PFS rates between the groups according to EORTC risk classification. We constructed a novel risk model predicting recurrence that classified patients into three groups using four independent prognostic factors to predict tumour recurrence based on Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. According to the novel recurrence risk classification, there was a significant difference in 5-year RFS rate between the low (68.4%), intermediate (45.8%) and high (33.7%) risk groups (P < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: As the EORTC risk group stratification may not be applicable to Asian patients with NMIBC, our novel classification model can be a simple and useful prognostic tool to stratify recurrence risk in patients with NMIBC. FUNDING: None.