Predictive Value of Antiviral Effects in the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the General Korean Population with Chronic Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The benefit of oral antiviral therapy in preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the general population is not well understood. We used a novel prediction method to estimate the risk of HCC in the Korean population based on various treatment guidelines. METHODS: The 5-year risk of HCC following antiviral therapy was calculated using an HCC risk prediction model. A virtual cohort that represented Koreans (>40 years old) with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection was established using the fifth National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The antiviral indications tested were the Korean National Health Insurance (NHI) and European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) guidelines as well as a new extended indication (serum HBV DNA >2,000 IU/mL regardless of serum aminotransferase level). RESULTS: A total of 993,872 subjects were infected with HBV in the general Korean population. Over a 5-year period, 2,725 HCC cases were predicted per 100,000 persons (0.55%/yr). When the cohort was treated based on the Korean NHI, the EASL, and the newly extended indications, HCC risks decreased to 2,531 (−7.1%), 2,089 (−23.3%), and 1,122 (−58.8%) cases per 100,000 persons, respectively (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Simulated risk prediction suggests that extending of oral antiviral indication may reduce the HCC risk in the general population.