Predictors of Post-operative Mycetoma Recurrence Using Machine-Learning Algorithms: The Mycetoma Research Center Experience

Post-operative recurrence in mycetoma after adequate medical and surgical treatment is common and a serious problem. It has health, socio-economic and psychological detrimental effects on patients and families. It is with this in mind, we set out to determine the predictors of post-operative recurrence in mycetoma. The study included 1013 patients with Madurella mycetomatis causing eumycetoma who underwent surgical excision at the Mycetoma Research Centre, Khartoum, Sudan in the period 1991–2015. The clinical records of these patients were reviewed and relevant information was collected using a pre-designed data collection sheet. The study showed, 276 patients (27.2%) of the studied population developed post-operative recurrence, 217 were males (78.6%) and 59 were females (21.4%). Their age ranged between 5 to 70 years with a mean of 32 years. The disease duration at presentation ranged between 2 months and 17 years. The majority of the patients 118 (42.8%) had mycetoma of 1 year duration. In this study, students were the most affected; 105 (38%) followed by workers 70 (25.4%), then farmers 48(17.3%). The majority of the patients were from the Central Sudan 207 (75%), Western Sudan 53 (19.2%) while 11 patients (4%) were from the Northern part. Past history of surgical intervention performed elsewhere was reported in 196 patients (71.1%). Family history of mycetoma was reported in 50 patients (18.1%). The foot was the most affected site, 245 (88.7%), followed by the hand seen in 19 (6.8%) patients and 44 (4.5%) had different sites involvement. Most of the patients 258 (93.5%) had wide local surgical excisions while 18 had major amputation. The model predicted that the certain groups have a high risk of recurrence, and these include patients with disease duration greater than 10 years and extra-pedal mycetoma. Patients with disease duration between [5–10] years, with pedal mycetoma, who had previous surgery, with positive family history and underwent wide local surgical excision. Patients with disease duration [5–10] years, with pedal mycetoma, had previous surgery, with no family history but presented with a disease size (> 10 cm), were non- farmers and underwent wide local surgical excision. Other groups are patients with disease duration (≤5 years), with pedal mycetoma, age <59 years, living in the Western /Eastern / Southern regions of the Sudan and with positive family history and had wide local surgical excision. Also included patients with disease duration (≤5 years), with pedal mycetoma, aged <59 years, living in the northern or central region, with no family history but presented with a disease size >10 cm, working as farmers or students and underwent wide local surgical excision. In conclusion, these groups of patients need special care to reduce the incidence of post-operative recurrence with its morbidity and detrimental consequences. In depth studies for the other predisposing factors for post-operative recurrence such as genetic, immunological and environmental factors are needed.