Cargando…

Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts

The potential spread of nosocomial Ebola virus disease (EVD) in non-outbreak areas is not known. The objective was to use detailed contact data on patients and healthcare workers (HCW) to estimate emergence probability and secondary incident cases (SIC) of EVD after hospitalization of an index case...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Vanhems, Philippe, Von Raesfeldt, Rosette, Ecochard, René, Voirin, Nicolas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5101488/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27827383
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep36301
_version_ 1782466291944128512
author Vanhems, Philippe
Von Raesfeldt, Rosette
Ecochard, René
Voirin, Nicolas
author_facet Vanhems, Philippe
Von Raesfeldt, Rosette
Ecochard, René
Voirin, Nicolas
author_sort Vanhems, Philippe
collection PubMed
description The potential spread of nosocomial Ebola virus disease (EVD) in non-outbreak areas is not known. The objective was to use detailed contact data on patients and healthcare workers (HCW) to estimate emergence probability and secondary incident cases (SIC) of EVD after hospitalization of an index case with undetected EVD. Contact data were collected through RFID devices used by patients and HCW during hospital care. A “susceptible-exposed-infected” model was used. Emergence probability, ranged from 7% to 84%. A plateau around 84% was observed. Emergence probability was proportional to time exposed to the dry phase of patients with nonspecific symptoms. Nurses were at higher risk of nosocomial EVD than physicians with around 60% emergence probability in this subgroup. The risk of nosocomial EVD in non-outbreak areas might be substantial if no preventive measures are implemented when asymptomatic patients or those with mild symptoms are hospitalized.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-5101488
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2016
publisher Nature Publishing Group
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-51014882016-11-14 Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts Vanhems, Philippe Von Raesfeldt, Rosette Ecochard, René Voirin, Nicolas Sci Rep Article The potential spread of nosocomial Ebola virus disease (EVD) in non-outbreak areas is not known. The objective was to use detailed contact data on patients and healthcare workers (HCW) to estimate emergence probability and secondary incident cases (SIC) of EVD after hospitalization of an index case with undetected EVD. Contact data were collected through RFID devices used by patients and HCW during hospital care. A “susceptible-exposed-infected” model was used. Emergence probability, ranged from 7% to 84%. A plateau around 84% was observed. Emergence probability was proportional to time exposed to the dry phase of patients with nonspecific symptoms. Nurses were at higher risk of nosocomial EVD than physicians with around 60% emergence probability in this subgroup. The risk of nosocomial EVD in non-outbreak areas might be substantial if no preventive measures are implemented when asymptomatic patients or those with mild symptoms are hospitalized. Nature Publishing Group 2016-11-09 /pmc/articles/PMC5101488/ /pubmed/27827383 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep36301 Text en Copyright © 2016, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
spellingShingle Article
Vanhems, Philippe
Von Raesfeldt, Rosette
Ecochard, René
Voirin, Nicolas
Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts
title Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts
title_full Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts
title_fullStr Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts
title_full_unstemmed Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts
title_short Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts
title_sort emergence of ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5101488/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27827383
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep36301
work_keys_str_mv AT vanhemsphilippe emergenceofebolavirusdiseaseinafrenchacutecaresettingasimulationstudybasedondocumentedinterindividualcontacts
AT vonraesfeldtrosette emergenceofebolavirusdiseaseinafrenchacutecaresettingasimulationstudybasedondocumentedinterindividualcontacts
AT ecochardrene emergenceofebolavirusdiseaseinafrenchacutecaresettingasimulationstudybasedondocumentedinterindividualcontacts
AT voirinnicolas emergenceofebolavirusdiseaseinafrenchacutecaresettingasimulationstudybasedondocumentedinterindividualcontacts