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Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts
The potential spread of nosocomial Ebola virus disease (EVD) in non-outbreak areas is not known. The objective was to use detailed contact data on patients and healthcare workers (HCW) to estimate emergence probability and secondary incident cases (SIC) of EVD after hospitalization of an index case...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2016
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5101488/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27827383 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep36301 |
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author | Vanhems, Philippe Von Raesfeldt, Rosette Ecochard, René Voirin, Nicolas |
author_facet | Vanhems, Philippe Von Raesfeldt, Rosette Ecochard, René Voirin, Nicolas |
author_sort | Vanhems, Philippe |
collection | PubMed |
description | The potential spread of nosocomial Ebola virus disease (EVD) in non-outbreak areas is not known. The objective was to use detailed contact data on patients and healthcare workers (HCW) to estimate emergence probability and secondary incident cases (SIC) of EVD after hospitalization of an index case with undetected EVD. Contact data were collected through RFID devices used by patients and HCW during hospital care. A “susceptible-exposed-infected” model was used. Emergence probability, ranged from 7% to 84%. A plateau around 84% was observed. Emergence probability was proportional to time exposed to the dry phase of patients with nonspecific symptoms. Nurses were at higher risk of nosocomial EVD than physicians with around 60% emergence probability in this subgroup. The risk of nosocomial EVD in non-outbreak areas might be substantial if no preventive measures are implemented when asymptomatic patients or those with mild symptoms are hospitalized. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5101488 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-51014882016-11-14 Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts Vanhems, Philippe Von Raesfeldt, Rosette Ecochard, René Voirin, Nicolas Sci Rep Article The potential spread of nosocomial Ebola virus disease (EVD) in non-outbreak areas is not known. The objective was to use detailed contact data on patients and healthcare workers (HCW) to estimate emergence probability and secondary incident cases (SIC) of EVD after hospitalization of an index case with undetected EVD. Contact data were collected through RFID devices used by patients and HCW during hospital care. A “susceptible-exposed-infected” model was used. Emergence probability, ranged from 7% to 84%. A plateau around 84% was observed. Emergence probability was proportional to time exposed to the dry phase of patients with nonspecific symptoms. Nurses were at higher risk of nosocomial EVD than physicians with around 60% emergence probability in this subgroup. The risk of nosocomial EVD in non-outbreak areas might be substantial if no preventive measures are implemented when asymptomatic patients or those with mild symptoms are hospitalized. Nature Publishing Group 2016-11-09 /pmc/articles/PMC5101488/ /pubmed/27827383 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep36301 Text en Copyright © 2016, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Article Vanhems, Philippe Von Raesfeldt, Rosette Ecochard, René Voirin, Nicolas Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts |
title | Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts |
title_full | Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts |
title_fullStr | Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts |
title_full_unstemmed | Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts |
title_short | Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts |
title_sort | emergence of ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5101488/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27827383 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep36301 |
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